Mets complete improbable series win against the Phillies with a thriller
Plus, a not-so-good injury update on Kodai Senga, and thoughts on Edwin Diaz's resurgence and his role in the club's push towards October
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets won a thrilling 2-1 game on Sunday night to take three out of four from the Phillies over the weekend (box)
Tylor Megill started for the Mets but only went two times through the Phillies line-up. He finished with a respectable line of 4 innings, 1 run, 4 hits, 2 BB, 6 K
Phil Maton took over in the fifth and went two full innings for the first time as a Met
Brandon Nimmo connected on a go-ahead home run in the 6th inning that proved to be the difference
Tyrone Taylor delivered another clutch hit for the Mets, getting them on the board in the 2nd inning with an RBI single
Edwin Diaz, who for just the second time in his career, converted a six out save, firing two scoreless innings and striking out four
The Mets finished the home portion of their regular season schedule with a record of 46-35. They are 25-10 (.714) at home since July 9, the best home winning percentage in the majors during that span…Won their final six home series of the season and went 15-4 during that span
Since May 30, the Mets are a major league best 65-36. They are 14-5 in September, 28-17-8 in series, 14-10-3 in series at home, earned their 39th comeback win, are 67-6 when leading after eight innings, 28-20 against the NL East, 18-44 when scoring three or fewer runs, and 37-23 since the All-Star Game
Playoff Race 🏁
The Braves and Padres won their games on Sunday, while the Diamondbacks blew a huge lead against Milwaukee and lost.
Heading into the final week of the season, the Mets are tied with Arizona for the second Wild Card, but currently own the second wild card by virtue of the tiebreaker, three games behind San Diego for the first Wild Card, and most importantly, are two games ahead of Atlanta for the final playoff spot with six to play.
Per FanGraphs, the Mets have a 76.4% chance of making the postseason.
If the Mets win two games against the Braves this week, their magic number against them would be reduced to 1, or a tie for a wild card with Atlanta. However, winning two would also net the Mets the tiebreaker against Atlanta, which in turn would clinch at least the third wild card.
The earliest the Mets can clinch a playoff berth is Wednesday, September 25.
Tiebreakers:
vs. ATL: 5-5
vs. ARI: 4-3 (finished)
vs. SD: 5-2 (finished)
Injury Updates 🏥
SS Francisco Lindor (back tightness) was out of the lineup for the seventh straight game and is considered day-to-day – he is targeting Tuesday as his best-case scenario for returning. He does not expect to be able to play without pain when he does return
RHP Kodai Senga (strained calf) felt triceps tightness in his rehab outing over the weekend and is no longer being considered to pitch in the final week of the regular season. He will continue to throw with hopes he can contribute in the playoffs
Who’s Hot 🔥
Since his blown save in Arizona on August 28, RHP Edwin Díaz has one run over his last 13.1 innings, while striking out 25 hitters and converting all six of his save chances. Over his last 33 appearances, Díaz has a 2.03 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 31 IP
Over his last five starts, Tylor Megill has a 1.72 ERA, a span of 25.1 IP, having allowed just five earned runs, 17 hits and eight walks with 28 strikeouts.
On Sunday, José Iglesias notched his fourth straight two-hit game and extended his hitting streak to 16 games. He’s hitting .419/.446/.532 with 26 hits, four doubles, a homer, three RBI and 13 runs scored during that span
Down on the Farm 🌾
The minor league season concluded on Sunday - the Syracuse Mets walked off Charlotte with a 5-4 win in Syracuse
J.T. Schwartz (Triple-A): 1-for-4, HR, 3 RBI
Mike Vasil (No. 18 Prospect, Triple-A): 4 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB 2 K
BOX SCORES
Triple-A SYR
Mets top 30 prospects
Today’s Game 🗓
The Mets are off today and will begin their much anticipated three game series in Atlanta tomorrow night
Edwin Diaz is SO back… ✍️
The Mets 2023 season was obviously one of the most disappointing in franchise history, and we all know that it went off the rails before it even began.
When Edwin Díaz suffered a patellar tendon injury celebrating with his Puerto Rico teammates in the World Baseball Classic the Mets season was officially doomed before it even started.
Díaz was coming off one of the best seasons by a closer in Major League history, and was simply one of the few players New York could not afford to lose.
He did not throw a single pitch for the club in 2023, the Mets limped to a pathetic 75-87 finish, and everyone around the team was left hoping better days were ahead in 2024.
And while it didn’t look like that be the case a few months ago, things have quite clearly changed dramatically, haven’t they?
For his part, early in the season Díaz did not even remotely resemble the dominant late inning force he’d been in 2022.
After a decent April as he was feeling his way back into Major League action, Diaz suffered a disastrous May that played a huge part in the team’s struggles that month. In nine May outings he blew four of his five save chances while putting up an 8.68 ERA in 9.1 innings. He gave up 12 hits including three home runs, and was just consistently getting hit in a way we had not seen before.
To add injury to insult, the Mets put him on the injured list with a shoulder impingement on May 29.
His reduced performance wasn’t terribly surprising, although it was indeed disappointing and it was obviously unexpected Díaz would struggle to the degree he did. After all, Díaz hadn’t thrown a pitch in the big leagues for a year and a half, and as we all know, skills erode when one doesn’t play for an extended period of time. His fastball velocity was down, the effectiveness of his slider had been (and can easily be argued that it is still) diminished, and as Díaz freely admitted, his confidence had wavered as he tried to replicate what he had done in his magical 2022 season.
While he was still a bit up and down for a while after he returned from the injured list, it’s safe to say Diaz has rounded into shape and is pitching his best baseball right now, when the Mets need it most.
In 11 outings in September, the righty has pitched to a dominant 0.79 ERA with an identical 0.79 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .150 batting average and striking out 21 hitters in 11.1 innings. He’s converted all five of his save opportunities, and just last night converted only the second six out save of his Major League career.
His success, especially since his blown save in Arizona, can largely be attributed to reduced usage of his slider which, as I said before, just hasn’t had the same bite and break as it once did. It has had below average movement in either direction, thereby giving it a run value of 1 compared to 22 in 2022, when it was utterly dominant and un-hittable.
He has made the adjustment back to his fastball and, as we saw during his six-out save on Sunday night, it has become a filthy weapon for him and a clear confidence booster.
The Mets are now in prime position to clinch a Wild Card spot later this week, and their chances to both do that, and then make a deep October run have improved exponentially now that Díaz is back to essentially shortening the games to eight—and sometimes seven innings.
Today’s off day comes at a perfect time for the Mets, as after working on back-to-back days to get 10 outs while throwing 47 pitches, Diaz would undoubtedly be unavailable tonight. New York will use today to get him a much needed rest day, and hope he can be ready to go full tilt in the team’s most important series in two years starting on Tuesday.
He’s earned the rest, the club has earned the rest. But it will be crunch time once again when the bell rings on Tuesday night in the Mets personal house of horrors in Atlanta.
But, the formula is simple despite their long and miserable history against the Braves this time of year.
Two wins in Atlanta wins them at least the third wild card.
Around the League 🚩
The Braves got home runs from Ozzie Albies and Gio Urshela to help them beat Miami 5-4
Milwaukee came back from an 8-0 deficit to beat the Diamondbacks 10-9 and push them down into the third wild card
The Padres sent the White Sox to their 120th loss on Sunday, tying the 1962 Mets modern day record - San Diego can clinch a postseason berth on Tuesday
The Twins suffered a devastating double header sweep in Boston that knocked them out of Wild Card position in the American League
Kerry Carpenter homered twice as the red hot Tigers continued their torrid push to reach October by beating the Orioles 4-3
Feeling good about the team and love this off day. We ALL need it!
For me better than expected in the Philly series. Like you said 2 of 3 in Atlanta would set up nicely for the last 3 games . When you win 90 games in a season, it's been a good one Hopefully Diaz will be as good the rest of the way as he was last night.