Mets begin off-season roster reformation, and a look at some bullpen options
Plus, an update on the club's pursuit of two international superstars
What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎
The Mets agreed to sign RHP Luis Severino to a one-year contract (story)
The Mets agreed to sign INF Joey Wendle to a one-year contract (story)
Rumor Mill 💭
The Mets will be going “full bore” to try and sign both RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto and LHP Shota Imanaga (New York Post)
Recapping a busy Wednesday, and a look at the Mets forthcoming bullpen project ✍️
The Mets decided to start their Winter Meetings work a bit early, as they reportedly inked both Luis Severino and Joey Wendle to one-year “prove it” deals late on Wednesday.
I am not going to pretend to tell you I think these are great moves for the Mets. I’ve thought plenty of moves they’ve made in the past were, “great” and then it just blows up in my and their faces. So, I’l refrain from that.
But what I will tell you is they’re necessary moves. The Mets 40-man roster was down to 28 players after David Stearns more or less gutted the second tier of the roster upon arrival, and others simply elected free agency under their own contractural power. That’s all fine and it gave the Mets a lot of necessary roster flexibility, but that also means the Mets have to fill those voids in the external markets and as I keep saying over and over again, that’s less likely to happen through major trades than it is through free agency in 2023 and 2024.
Severino has all sorts of red flags, but there’s a lot of upside with him and the $13 million the Mets are going to pay him is peanuts compared to what that number might mean for another club. His fastball velocity is still in the upper ranks of the league and his slider movement remains elite, and that’s something the Mets can work with when he gets to Port St. Lucie in February. The injury issue is an obvious concern - he’s battled shoulder problems, elbow problems, other soft tissue problems, and maybe the Yankee expectation problem over the years as well. But the Mets desperately need pitching, this is not a top-of-the-rotation acquisition but has the potential to far exceed the value of his contract if the Mets can get him back to the form he found in 2022.
Severino also helps them mitigate the loss of David Peterson (off-season hip surgery) on the back side of the rotation and gives them flexibility with Tylor Megill, who still might be better suited as a reliever.
The move is a start, but by far from an end.
As for Wendle, he’s a back-of-the-roster player at this point in his career. He’s still a solid defender and, after non-tendering Luis Guillorme earlier this month, the Mets needed a veteran utility player for this roster spot. He’s a former All-Star, is supposedly a great culture guy for the clubhouse, and those are things the Mets need to improve upon as well. I’m not at all saying Wendle is a difference-making signing, but it was an easy signing for the Mets to make at a similar dollar value to that of Guillorme.
Now, onto what lies ahead…
Yesterday, I spoke about some rotation options for the Mets to consider, which they still need at least two of at the top of the rotation. Last week, I spoke about some lineup additions which would make their offense a little longer as well.
Today is about the bullpen, something the Mets routinely stink at building year after year despite some recent positive performances from the unit. Something always seems to break, or never works to begin with, or both, and it’s just something they need to be better at, especially in an era where the starters are throwing fewer and fewer innings.
They have Edwin Díaz of course, but he hasn’t pitched a competitive big league inning in more than a year and it’s completely unrealistic to expect him to repeat his performance from 2022 anyway. He should be good if not great, but invincibility is a silly expectation.
From there, they don’t have a lot on the roster right now. They still have Drew Smith, Brooks Raley, Phil Bickford, a bunch of fringe major leaguers and that’s about it, and Bickford is on the bubble himself, as might Smith. If you want to throw Megill and Joey Lucchesi into this mix, fine but I won’t for the sake of this conversation.
In short, the Mets run differential in the 8th inning in 2023 was -33 with 21 home runs allowed, which is completely unacceptable.
So, there’s a ton of work to do here.
Fortunately, the market is always flush with options and David Stearns has an opportunity to more or less completely reimagine innings 6-8.
It’s hard to really know where to begin with this list considering there are so many free agent relievers. The Mets need at least three quality relievers from my seat. So, I’ll just list some out and talk about what I think here about each:
David Robertson
Aroldis Chapman
Phil Maton
Héctor Neris
Note - there are a zillion other options! I’ll just start at the top of this list and work down…
Robertson, 39, was signed by the Mets last winter only to be among the first moved when the Mets unloaded their roster at the trade deadline. He was great for the Mets, especially after he was unexpectedly thrusted into the closer role right out of the gate. He was not good after he was dealt to the Marlins although the peripheral stats would suggest he should’ve been better than the primary numbers would suggest. His strikeout rate actually improved in Miami although his walk rate jumped as well. He’s a safe pick to be the setup guy for Díaz again, he knows New York, left open the possibility of re-signing with the Mets even after he was dealt, so this seems like a good fit, albeit not the flashiest option for their bullpen.
Chapman, 35, returned to the form that made him one of the most intimidating closers over the last decade in 2023. His fastball velocity returned, and while the stuff overall may not be what it used to be, Chapman proved he can be a strong option to setup Díaz and really help shorten the game for the Mets. He had a very strong run with the Yankees as their closer despite a tumultuous conclusion to his tenure and some very strange moments against the Astros in the playoffs, but the Mets need swing and miss stuff and Chapman is still missing bats. So, this would be hard to ignore if he was interested in coming to the Mets. A question will be whether or not Chapman wants to close or if he’s willing to be a setup reliever.
Maton, 30, found himself with the Astros over the last three years after bouncing between the Padres and Guardians in the early part of his career. He’s another swing and miss option although maybe not to the extent of others on this list. His sweeper is probably his best pitch and he doesn’t allow a lot of home runs. He has been a quietly good and durable reliever in recent years thanks to that secret sauce the Astros have going on in Houston.
Like Maton, Neris, 34, figured it out during his stay in Houston after a very up-and-down tenure with the Phillies. He is durable and has a splitter-centric repertoire which is what truly makes him a swing-and-miss reliever. Having said that, his fastball was his best pitch in 2023 according to Statcast, which sits at about 93 mph. He’s was in the upper percentiles of hard hit rate, chase rate, average exit velocity, and all of those other nice things the Mets need to cut down on runs late in games.
Again, there’s more for the Mets to consider, but this is my starting point and we can go from here.
Hot Stove 🔥
Top Brewers prospect Jackson Churio is expected to sign an eight-year, $80 million contract which would be the most ever for a player having not ever played in the majors (New York Post)
RHP Nick Martínez agreed to a two-year, $26 million deal with the Reds (ESPN)
The Reds also agreed to signed RHP Emilio Pagan to a two-year, $16 million deal (MLB.com)
The White Sox might trade RHP Dylan Cease in the next week (MLB Network)
The Dodgers are expressing interest in signing RHP Seth Lugo (KPRC)