Just what is going on with Pete Alonso?
Just what is going on with Pete Alonso?
Diving into the slugger's struggles as free agency looms. Plus, the Mets' offense breaks out to salvage the series in Miami...
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets escaped Miami with a series split after beating the Marlins 6-4 in the series finale on Monday at loanDepot Park (box)
LHP David Peterson pitched five innings for New York, allowing two earned runs - including a solo homer - on six hits with four walks and four strikeouts
RHP José Buttó pitched in relief of Peterson and also gave up a home run, pitching two innings in total with one earned run on one hit, one walk and three strikeouts
RHP Phil Maton then pitched a perfect eighth inning, before RHP Edwin Díaz escaped a bases-loaded jam by allowing only run on two hits with one walk and one strikeout to secure the win for the Mets
2B Jeff McNeil continued his impressive start to the second half with a no-doubt three-run home run and 3 RBI
SS Francisco Lindor hit a pair of homers - his 18th and 19th of the year - and finished 2-for-4 with two runs scored, two RBIs and a walk
3B Jose Iglesias continues to come up with big contributions, going 1-for-3 with one run scored, one RBI and a triple
Despite recording 11 hits, the Mets went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and left nine runners stranded on base, finishing the series just 2-for-29 with RISP
Díaz has now recorded 108 saves with the Mets, which is good for fourth all-time in franchise history
Per Will Sammon, inquiring teams have been informed that Pete Alonso won’t be available at the trade deadline (The Athletic)
Playoff Race 🏁
The Mets are in sole possession of the third Wild Card spot and a half a game ahead of both the Pirates and the Padres, and a full game ahead of the Diamondbacks. After beating the Marlins on Monday, New York is also half a game back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. There are 63 games remaining.
Per FanGraphs, the Mets have a 43.9% chance of making the postseason after beating Miami yesterday.
New York has the 10th easiest schedule in MLB the rest of the way.
Tiebreakers:
vs. ATL: 3-3
vs. ARI: 2-2
vs. STL: 3-2
vs. SD: 3-0
vs. CIN: 2-1
vs. SF: 2-4 (finished)
vs. PIT: 5-2 (finished)
vs. CHC: 4-3 (finished)
RIP, Rachel Minaya
Rachel Minaya, the wife of former Mets general manager Omar Minaya, was found dead in their New Jersey home on Monday.
Steve and Alex Cohen released the following statement on behalf of the Mets organization:
“We were tremendously saddened to learn of Rachel Minaya’s passing. Omar had a substantial impact on our organization and Rachel, his wife, was always by his side every step of the way. The Minayas have been dear friends of ours for years and we extend our deepest condolences to Omar’s entire family and loved ones.”
RIP, Rachel Minaya.
Roster Moves 📰
C Logan Porter signed to a Major League contract and optioned to Triple-A Syracuse
RHP Cole Sulser designated for assignment
Draft Signings 💰
The Mets signed a number of their 2024 draft selections to contracts on Monday.
Fourth rounder Eli Serrano signed for $697,500. Slot value for the 111th pick is $656,400
15th rounder Owen Woodward signed for $150,000
18th rounder Jace Hampson signed for $150,000
They signed the following picks over the weekend:
LHP Jonathan Santucci
RHP Ryan Lambert
RHP Brendan Girton
INF Nick Roselli
RHP Ethan Lanthier
RHP R.J. Gordon
OF Jacoby Long
RHP Frank Elissalt
Who’s Hot 🔥
2B Jose Iglesias has 10 hits in his last five games with four runs scored
2B Jeff McNeil has three homers, three runs scored and six RBIs since the All-Star break
Over a 14-day span, SS Francisco Lindor is hitting .333/.500/.667/.1.167 with 12 hits, seven runs scored, four homers, four stolen bases, 12 walks and nine RBIs
Down on the Farm 🌾
All four Mets minor league affiliates were off on Monday
Today’s Game 🗓
Match-up: Mets (51-48) at Yankees (60-42)
Where: Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY
Starters: LHP José Quintana (4-6, 4.13 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Gil (10-5, 3.17 ERA)
When: 7:05 PM EDT
Where to Watch: WPIX, TBS
What is the problem with Pete Alonso right now? ✍️
The Mets relied on Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil to beat the Marlins in the series finale on Monday and escape Miami with a series split.
It was hardly the ideal outcome for New York coming out of the All-Star break.
After all, given how tight the Wild Card race is, you need to be beating up on teams like the Marlins. And, when you consider the tough stretch of games the Mets have coming up, you hope those two losses in Miami don’t come back to bite them.
However, as important as Monday’s win was, the Mets will still be heading to the Bronx tonight with a significant headache.
And that headache is called Pete Alonso.
Just what is going on with the slugging first baseman at the minute?
Alonso hasn’t looked himself for a while now, and he endured his fair share of struggles in the Miami series. He went a combined 4-for-15 with no home runs, no RBIs, two runs scored and just one extra-base hit against the Marlins. Furthermore, in a 4-2 loss on Sunday, Alonso was unable to get the job done with a runner on second base in the first, fifth and seventh innings. Then, on Monday, he grounded out into a double play two on and one out in the first. Alonso is now hitting just .213 with a .701 OPS with runners in scoring position this year.
Now, granted, the first baseman did record a couple of hard-hit singles in the series finale to finish strong. And he’s not alone in struggling with runners on. As a team, the Mets finished 2-for-29 with runners in scoring position against the Marlins. That just isn’t going to get the job done. And, locked in a tight battle for the playoffs, you need your best players to come up clutch with runners on. If Alonso can’t rectify his struggles with runners in scoring position, then that could cause major problems down the stretch.
On the flipside, if you look at his overall numbers, Alonso is where we would expect him to be stats wise. He’s currently hitting .241/.322/.449/.770 with 19 home runs and 51 RBIs. In terms of his home run total, that matches up with where he’s been at this stage in previous years. Although, if you study some of the underlying metrics, it is clear that the four-time All-Star is missing some of his mojo in the power hitting department this year.
Plus, he only has two home runs in the month of July so far.
The eye test backs that up too. Alonso just hasn’t looked his usual dominant self at the plate, and he doesn’t seem to be playing with the same kind of swagger that we’ve all become accustomed to. Just look at the Home Run Derby a week or so again. In an event he usually excels in, Alonso was eliminated from the first round after hitting just 12 homers.
Of course, you can’t equate a Home Run Derby to a normal Major League Baseball Game. But there is something evidently off with Alonso. That much is crystal clear.
Could it be a mechanics issue? Is there something wrong with his approach at the plate? Or could it be a lack of confidence stemming from non-stop speculation about his future?
He’s in the bottom third percentile in exit velocity this season, the 56th percentile in hard hit rate, the 57th percentile in chase rate. A lot of that can be attributed to his knack for chasing sliders out of the zone routinely, rather than taking them and taking strikes on the outer half the other way, much like he did earlier in his career. As such, Alonso is hitting just .165 against breaking balls this season, down from a disappointing .201 in 2023 when he suffered a much similar affliction to breaking balls away.
He also has a -7 run value against sliders in 2024.
We all know Alonso is a pending free agent. And, depending on who you talk to, what news site you read and what New York sports talk radio station you tune into on the daily, Alonso is either going to remain a long-term Met or his future has already been decided and he’ll be allowed to sign with a new team in the winter.
Shutting off all of that outside noise can’t be easy, and it hasn’t helped that Alonso’s name keeps coming up in trade talks with the trade deadline now a week away. Now, the latest reports suggests that the Mets won’t be shopping Alonso at the deadline, and that makes sense. But, on the other hand, if New York loses three or four this week and loses ground in the Wild Card race, all that speculation will only ramp up again.
For the Mets, they are going to need a fully locked in Pete Alonso at the peak of his powers if they are to make the postseason. And, if they are going to get any further than the Wild Card round, they are going to need Alonso to mash at an incredibly high level. Especially with runners on.
So, if it is simply a mechanical snafu or an issue with approach at the plate, then that can be easily fixed on the fly. But, if the reason why Alonso hasn’t looked like one of the best power hitters in the game this year is down to his uncertain future, then that could be a major problem. Again, even if he remains a Met after the trade deadline, Alonso’s future in Queens is going to continue to be a hot button issue the closer we get to the climax of the 2024 season.
All in all, in order to be successful in baseball, you need your best hitters to hit at a high and consistent level. If the Mets are to really complete this remarkable turnaround and make the postseason, they are going to need Pete Alonso to right the ship and return to the skyscraper-high level we’re so used to him playing at. And if he can also start coming up big with runners on and driving people home, that would help a great deal too.
If he can’t, and certain struggles persist, then it could well be a tough end to the year for Alonso. And perhaps to his entire Mets tenure.
Around the League 🚩
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer signaled that Chicago will stand pat at the trade deadline with an eye on competing in 2025 and beyond
Juan Soto hit a pair of home runs and Carlos Rodón struckout 10 in seven innings of one-run ball as the Yankees beat the Rays, 9-1
Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. just missed out on the cycle as Kansas City beat the D-backs, equaling their entire victory total of the 2023 season (56) as a result
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal struckout six and allowed just one run in seven innings to help Detroit beat the Guardians
Nick Gonzales came up with more late inning heroics for the Pirates, hitting a go-ahead RBI single in the bottom of the eighth to help lead Pittsburgh to victory over the Cardinals
The article stated that Pete's HR numbers, or " In terms of his home run total, that matches up with where he’s been at this stage in previous years."
Now I don't know if he had big finishes in the past, but that conclusion is problematic:
Pete is on pace to hit 31 home runs this year
In his 4 full seasons (excluding 2020), Pete has hit: 53, 37 40, 46
With RBI, on pace for 83, vs. career marks of 120, 94, 131, 118
In terms of OPS, Pete is at .770;
his 4 full years are 941, 863, 869, 821
By any measure, Pete's performance is subpar.
Having said that, and given he is a poor base-runner, below average fielder by every metric, and a total goof in terms of his comments (I am in a great place he just said), I still believe the Mets should keep Pete long term, warts and all. His presence in the lineup has to matter, and even at 31 homers, it is still a factor.
Pete deserves a pay cut for his performance this season, not a huge raise. Just think of some of the old player quotes about their contract negotiations.