It's Opening Day! What to expect from the Mets in 2024
Everything you need to know going into Opening Day. Plus, the Just Mets round table makes their predictions for the season.
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets will open their 2024 regular season against the Brewers after the game was postponed on Thursday
LHP José Quintana will make the Opening Day start for the club due to the injury to Kodai Senga in spring
RHPs Yohan Ramírez and Michael Tonkin were the final two players to make the roster out of the bullpen
The Mets open their 63rd season in franchise history this afternoon — they are 41-21 on Opening Day, the best in MLB history
New York has won 41 of their last 54 Opening Day games after losing their first eight in a row
Today’s Game 🗓
Match-up: Mets vs. Brewers
Where: Citi Field – Flushing, NY
Starters: LHP José Quintana vs RHP Freddy Peralta
When: 1:40 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY
Just Mets Round Table: 2024 Season Expectations 📝
Today on Just Mets, the staff offers their final quick thoughts ahead of the 2024 season as well as the record each expect the Mets to produce by the end of the season…
Linda Surovich
Heading into spring training there was not much excitement surrounding the team. All of the additions to their rotation were reclamation projects and question marks. While the return of Edwin Díaz was huge, the bullpen seemed iffy, and the offense was the same offense that only won 75 games. If all that wasn’t enough then Kodai Senga got hurt. Now their already questionable rotation was without its ace so things seemed bleak back in February.
To my surprise the pitching turned into a legitimate strength during spring training. The finished Grapefruit League action with a 3.48 ERA which was tops in the majors. Luis Severino led the way with a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings pitched. It is a small sample size but its promising to see he can potentially recapture his immense talent.
The offense on the other hand remained a concern. Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and DJ Stewart all struggled mightily. Whether it was their struggles or the market cratering, David Stearns made the right call in bringing in J.D. Martinez. Even at 36-years-old, he is a legitimate threat at the plate and his signing added some excitement both to the fanbase and the players on the team.
With the addition of Martinez, and if the rotation can hold steady until Senga returns, this should be a better team than last year’s underachieving group. If things break right this year’s group should be in contention for a Wild Card. I don’t think they have done enough to seriously compete for the division but a Wild Card should be within reach. I do think there are still a few question marks surrounding the team but an improvement of just 10 games doesn’t seem to be out of the question. Especially with Díaz back and looking like himself to nail down games. I predict they grab the final Wild Card and then come October anything goes.
Expected record: 85-77
Justin Mears
Heading into 2024, expectations are significantly lower in Queens than they were 12 months ago. But that doesn’t mean the season can’t be successful. It’s true that it’s hard to argue the Mets are not behind both Atlanta and Philadelphia—at least on paper—in the NL East. But games are obviously played on the diamond and not on a computer.
When I look at the Mets, I have very little worries about their line-up. J.D. Martinez coming on board a week before opening day represents a seismic shift in what this team can accomplish. I cannot think of another time in recent memory where a proven 30 homer, 100 RBI bat signed with a new team this close to the beginning of the season. Between him, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor, the middle of the Amazins’ line-up will be dangerous. Brandon Nimmo is coming off a career year, Jeff McNeil won the batting title two years ago, and 22-year-old catcher Francisco Alvarez blasted 25 home runs as a rookie. The Mets should not have difficulty scoring runs, and this line-up will be legitimately scary if Starling Marte can rebound and Brett Baty breaks out.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that run prevention is likely to again be a problem. The Mets best starting pitcher, Kodai Senga, is already slated to miss the beginning of the season. I think David Stearns did a nice job of bringing in some veteran starters with upside, but at the end of the day, it’s hard to look at this rotation and have confidence. I do expect at least one of the newcomers—I’m looking at Luis Severino in particular—to surprise us, but I also think getting deep in games, and consistently delivering quality starts will be a problem.
Edwin Diaz being back will be a massive boost to the Mets late inning relief, and I do think Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley can be successful set-up men. That said, the middle of the bullpen has question marks, and if the starters can’t consistently go six innings, the pitching staff as a whole will be a problem.
I fear the Mets will too often have to try to win games with scores like 9-7, which is not exactly the most sustainable recipe for successful. Of course, if they’re in contention, a trade for a starter (or two), is possible, and someone like Christian Scott could also force his way to the big leagues and become a difference maker.
At the end of the day, as we sit here today during the last week of March, it’s hard for me to say with authority that I expect the Mets to be a playoff team. But I also don’t think it’s impossible.
I’m going to say the Mets will be in the mix for one of the National League’s final Wild Card spots down to the bitter end.
Expected record: 87-75
Andrew Steele-Davis
I am in a slightly different place than I was before the J.D. Martinez signing, although I still think the road ahead for the Mets in 2024 is incredibly tough, and one laden with a slew of different obstacles.
Martinez lengthens the lineup and offers crucial lineup protection for Pete Alonso. Those two factors by themselves are huge. Plus, I strongly believe that Francisco Álvarez will have a monster year and will get close to the 30-homer threshold. However, on the flipside, it remains to be seen what kind of production the Mets will get out of Brett Baty from the hot corner. There are also significant question marks over Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte and whether they can both stay healthy and enjoy a bounce-back year. I’m worried about McNeil’s left arm holding up throughout an entire 162-game schedule, while Marte looked healthy but not great throughout spring training.
As for the rotation, it has been said countless times already that everything will need to break right in order for that group to collectively have a successful season. And that absolutely remains the case. If Luis Severino can translate his success in spring to the regular season, and if Kodai Senga can come back healthy and pitch like he did in his rookie year, then the ceiling will remain high for this group. I just can’t get away from the plethora of ifs hovering above the rotation, however, and I think there will be one or two busts in there, which will lower the floor considerably.
I have no doubt that the rotation will be better this year than it was in 2023, and I don’t think it will be close. The front office have done a really nice job of constructing that bullpen from the ground floor up and, obviously, it helps having one of the best closers in the game in Edwin Díaz back in the mix. However, my one worry with the bullpen is that they will get taxed more often than not due to the shortcomings of the rotation, and that will lead several arms running out of gas by the time we get to August and September.
Overall, I think this team will be a lot of fun to watch given how athletic they are, coupled with the big bat addition of Martinez. I also expect the Mets to be competitive going into August but, ultimately, the absence of another high-end arm, a thin bottom of the lineup and a bullpen that could be taxed by that point, will mean a disappointing end to the season and a failure to reach the postseason.
Expected record: 80-82
Rich MacLeod
I’m not sure that I’ve gone back-and-forth about my thoughts on a Mets season as much as I have this spring. For most of Spring Training, I was a little down on the club. I didn’t think they’d be awful, but there just hasn’t been all that much juice to me since the 2022 season ended. After such a promising year ended in such disappointment, 2023 was doomed before it ever began with the Edwin Díaz injury, and that season became a total flop not long after.
In what was clearly treated as a transition offseason for this new President of Baseball Operations in David Stearns, I was once again not feeling particularly enthused. Had you asked me what my expectations were about week-and-a-half ago, I might have told you something different than what I’m writing today.
But as I spoke to a bit on Twitter last week (no, I’m not calling it “X”), the signing of J.D. Martínez has legitimately acted as a jolt of energy to me and a lot of members of this fanbase. After what felt like a fairly sleepy, not-too-exciting spring, the unexpected signing of the veteran power hitter really did seem to bring the juice and excitement back to the start of this regular season. And maybe the signing of just one player in late March shouldn’t do all that much to change the perception of things, but this really did feel like that one extra piece that could really raise the ceiling of this team in 2024.
And look – this team is far from perfect. Their starting rotation is going to be an enigma until proven otherwise, with a ton of high variance arms looking to prove something. With that comes the potential of a big-time reward, but also quite a bit of risk. The bullpen has Díaz back as their anchor which is a welcome sight, but the rest of it will have to prove a lot, themselves. The one area this team should prove to be formidable in is their lineup once they’re at full strength. There is no excuse for this team to not be one of the better offensive groups in the league – they’ll need to be in order to be competitive.
Overall, I think this will be a fairly up-and-down year, with peaks and valleys and lots of fun moments. With a crop of youngsters waiting the in the wings, there is also the potential that there is an exciting infusion of big-time prospects later this season as well. Ultimately, I expect that if things don’t go horribly wrong for the team that they will find themselves playing, yes, meaningful games in September. They’ll have a chance at the final Wild Card spot, though right now, I’m picking them to fall just short.
A fun season, but no postseason.
Expected record: 85-77
Michael Baron
Obviously, if I had written this a week or so ago, it would’ve contained far less enthusiasm than it does right now. The addition of JD Martínez unquestionably lengthens this lineup and makes the middle far more formidable specifically. It’s going to be fun watching Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Martínez assuming all can stay healthy. Jeff McNeil’s left arm health is a question and he needs to bounce back to hold his place in the top of the lineup, and third base is once again an issue until proven otherwise, but this is a better defensive/run prevention team, a better base running team, and just more athletic in general which should make them more fun to watch at a minimum.
The rotation though remains a deep question for this team, and while I think the Mets have done a good job of building their bullpen, I still think it lacks that necessary swing-and-miss option behind Edwin Díaz in the ninth inning unless Shintaro Fujinami can figure it out in the minors and get himself on the active roster. And Carlos Mendoza is probably going to have to lean on this bullpen considering the issues they have in the rotation. But the bullpen should still be fine and certainly not the same weakness as the rotation - it would just be stronger with a game shortener behind Díaz.
All told, the Mets will probably need to add a starter at the trade deadline to get into the tournament, assuming they’re in contention. But there should now be enough here right now and enough depth behind what’s on the active roster to make this team that playoff contender both David Stearns and Steve Cohen have declared them to be.
It’s easier with three wild cards, of course, as I don’t expect the Mets to be outside of the .500 range in 2024.
Expected record: 83-79
Around the League 🚩
The Yankees overcame a four-run deficit and held on thanks to a Juan Soto outfield assist in the 9th as they defeated the Astros, 5-4
The Dbacks started their season strong as a 14-run third inning lifted them to a 16-1 win over the Rockies
The defending World Series champion Rangers started their season in style with a walk-off victory thanks to a game-winning RBI single from Jonah Heim to beat the Cubs, 4-3
Orioles RHP Corbin Burnes dazzled in his debut with the club, striking out 11 as Baltimore beat the Angels, 11-3
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman each homered as the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 7-1 in their home opener