Is Brett Baty for real?
Plus, the Mets walloped the Rockies for eight runs to land their third series win in a row and pulled even with the Phillies for first place in the NL East
What’s up with the Mets? ⚾
The Mets defeated the Rockies with a convincing 8-2 win on Saturday afternoon at Citi Field (box)
Kodai Senga started for the Mets and overcame a first inning homer from Ezekiel Tovar to allow just two runs over 6.1 IP with seven strikeouts
The Mets powered up for three home runs, one each from Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil
Every player in the starting lineup had at least one hit on the afternoon
José Buttó and Chris Devenski wrapped up the pitching with 2.2 IP of scoreless relief
Brett Baty concluded a strong month of May with a single, triple and three RBI on the day
The Mets and Phillies are now tied for first place in the NL East with identical 36-22 records
Injury Updates 🏥
RHP Paul Blackburn (right knee inflammation) will make the start against the Dodgers tomorrow in LA, and then possibly go to the bullpen
RHP Frankie Montas (right lat strain) will make his next rehab start on June 3
Play of the Game ⭐️
Brett Baty’s bases clearing triple in the first inning set the tone for the rest of the afternoon for the Mets. It was part of a big day to conclude Baty’s most promising month in the major leagues to-date, as he drove in three runs with one swing of the bat to help lead the Mets to their 12th series win and third in a row:
Stats of the day 📊
In 16 starts since being recalled from Triple-A Syracuse on May 5, Brett Baty is hitting .304/.350/.625 (17-56) with 10 runs, one double, one triple, five homers, 16 RBI, three walks, one stolen base, one hit by pitch and a .975 OPS
Kodai Senga has recorded 19 wins in his first 40 career games, tied with Jacob deGrom for the second-most in franchise history through as many career games He trails only Dwight Gooden (23 wins). His 1.60 ERA is the fifth-lowest through a player’s first 11 starts of a season in franchise history, trailing only Jacob deGrom’s 0.54 ERA in 2021, Jerry Koosman’s 1.42 ERA in 1969, Koosman’s 1.43 ERA in 1968) and deGrom’s 1.52 ERA in 2018.
Down on the Farm 🌾
RHP Brandon Sproat (no. 1 prospect, Triple-A): 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 3 K
OF Nick Morabito (no. 17 prospect, Double-A): 3-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, R
RHP Jack Wenniger (no. 28 prospect, Double-A): 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K
OF AJ Ewing (no. 27 prospect, High-A): 3-for-5, R
BOX SCORES
Single-A STL | High-A BRK | | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR
Today’s Game 🗓️
Match-up: Mets (36-22) vs. Rockies (9-49)
Where: Citi Field - Flushing, NY
Starters: RHP Clay Holmes (5-3, 2.98 ERA) vs. LHP Carson Palmquist (0-3, 8.78 ERA)
When: 1:40 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY
Juan Soto’s hinting at a turnaround, and can Brett Baty keep this up? ✍️
I don’t want to sit here and get all giddy over the Mets beating up on the Rockies. They’re doing what they’re supposed to be doing against them, which is racking up wins and getting their offense healthy in the process. They’re going to get another chance at doing so at Coors Field next weekend after they spend the first part of the upcoming week in Los Angeles, where things, of course, won’t be quite as easy or laid back against the Dodgers.
Having said that, these games between those two teams are getting to be a lot more fun and a lot more competitive as the Mets seemingly creep closer to LA’s strength.
But before the Mets embark on the west coast this afternoon, they need to finish the job against the Rockies. There’s no reason to expect otherwise.
Even though this weekend represents the softest part of their current schedule, there have still been a number of good and important things to come out of it.
First off, Juan Soto is having a nice, promising, and hopeful weekend all by himself. Not only has he produced over the first two games of this series, he just looks a little more relaxed at the plate, which is really the key for him to turn his season around. His swing is more level, his bat speed has improved, and he just has looked like Juan Soto, which is really exciting.
As I keep saying, I know we are going to look at his line at the end of the year, and it will resemble a Juan Soto year. I am not worried about him, and I have never been worried about him despite his struggles, all of the noise, and media pressure surrounding him. This is one of the great players of our time, and the cream always rises to the top with people like this. There is plenty of season left, and perhaps this weekend will serve as a launching pad for him. I am very much looking forward to seeing him in LA this week, where the lights are bright in front of what should be a hostile crowd.
He’s going to be just fine. Sure, his performance has been puzzling and disappointing over the first two-plus months of the season, but it’s nine weeks of a 15-year contract. People slump; he’s just getting his feet under him, and it’s only natural for a player like this who signed the biggest contract ever to put pressure on himself to produce.
Again, I, for one, am being patient. The Mets are doing just fine despite his rough start.
The greatest development to me over the first two months of the season has taken place in the last few weeks, and that is Brett Baty.
He has a .914 OPS since returning from his minor league assignment on May 7, a .975 OPS in his starts since returning. He has two defensive runs saved and two outs above average (OAA) this season, the latter of which is in the 85th percentile in MLB. Some of his peripherals are a little meh, such as his chase rate (29 percent) and his whiff rate (28.6), but his contact has been loud, and he is unquestionably producing and simply taking back his job at third from Mark Vientos, who just hasn’t gotten it back together after a stellar season in 2024.
To me, though, there’s more than just the stats that have led to Baty’s small sample renaissance.
He looks like a different player. He is attacking strikes, he has conviction in the box, he has a plan, and he is clearly more confident, all of which has led to this reformation for Baty.
The question for him now is, will this last? Can he continue to build himself up and be the force the Mets have been patiently and anxiously waiting for him to become?
No way to know in the end, but all signs are pointing upward for Baty.
It’s certainly been a long time coming for him, that is for sure. And, as recently as a month ago, it seemed like Baty’s time was running out. But, Vientos’ disappointing start to this season opened the door for another chance for Baty, and he has seized that opportunity and has become a refreshing presence for the Mets on both sides of the ball.
That’s not to say I don’t want Vientos to get his season going - after all, how great would it be for the two of them who have been two highly touted prospects in the organization to be there at the end after all of the ups and downs they’ve been through? If Vientos can hit again, he will be there somewhere.
In the meantime, Baty’s next challenge is before him, and that’s the sustainability question.
Let’s see if he’s up for it.
Around the League 🚩
Jesus Luzardo allowed 12 runs to the Brewers as Milwaukee bowled over the Phillies 17-7, allowing the Mets to pull back even with the Phils for first place in the NL East
The Dodgers pounded out 21 hits and five home runs as they rolled over the Yankees 18-2 in LA
Tarik Skubal allowed two hits over seven shutout innings, Michael Wacha allowed one hit over seven shutout innings but it was the Royals who prevailed over the Tigers for a 1-0 win
The Rays used a six-run seventh inning in part to crush the Astros 16-3 - Zack Littell allowed three runs for a complete game for Tampa Bay
Fantastic as always, Michael! My favorite Mets stop on Substack.
Baty’s approach is just so more authoritative. In cricket terminology, Baty is batting with intent. He’s internalized the strategic work on approach that he does with the staff in the background, and now is trusting his skills. This is possibly the magic “the game is slowing down for him,” moment that prospects catch as they become players. We saw Jose Reyes experience in late 05 once the Mets gave up on trying to teach the fastest man in baseball how to RUN A NEW WAY (not that I’m still aghast at the Art Howe years). This is like the quickening in Highlander, and it is the most fun time for watching an ascendant prospect.
Interestingly, Baty and Soto both seemed bedeviled by a lack of intent in the early going. For Baty, it’s a natural adjustment process. For Soto, it’s a bit more speculative. Maybe he felt more at ease in the role of “guy who is playing to prove his worth” than “guy who is trying to justify the contract he received.” Soto had been in the “I’m betting on myself” role for 3 years since rejecting the Nats 400mm offer.
I think this idea of pressure from wanting to produce for the team you finally chose is legitimate. Both Scott Boras and Stearns have noted the different pressures associated with both roles. Also, how deeply has Soto worked with Chavez et al., about changing his approach? He’s taking 56% (iirc) of first pitches in all AB’s. If that percentage is off I do know that it’s a career high rate. He’s been more reactive than attacking so far for whatever reason. But, I believe that’s class trumps all over a season. Soto didn’t forget how to be a magnificent hitter any more than Secretariat would forget how to run after changing barns. Good baseball seasons -meaning memorable for fans-have about 10-12 distinct periods and storylines a year. Soto’s storyline is going to be us laughing and saying “remember when people were worried about Soto?” by the ASB. It’s our version of 2015’s “remember when John Mayberry Jr hit cleanup for this team?” bemusement as Cespedes was guillotining the Nationals in 2015.
Two of our other stories whose impacts cannot be overemphasized: Senga and Diaz. In the pre season it was easy to forget about Senga, given his very internal “how does my body feel,” process for injury rehab and season preparation. It was almost like “whatever we get from Senga, we get.” Well, what we are getting is a solid lesson in what it means to casually add a true ace to last year’s playoff team. It’s enormous, and certainly his dominance has let Manaea rehab with zero pressure. Mets have really covered for Soto, and in a different way for Manaea and Montas, by being a first-place team (tiebreaker in our favor, baby)! Any negativity, especially about Soto, doesn’t get anywhere near the traction it would have if the Mets were scuffling.
Now, it’s time to appreciate Sugar Diaz. He never quite had it all in sync last year after the lost 2023. But his balls and his guile got him through huge moments in a playoff run while sitting 3-4 mph lower than his 22 velo and seemingly only having control of both his slider and FB on a few occasions. This year, he’s clearly worked with Hefner and the trainers to get all his mechanics and leg lengths in line. The result is that Diaz is back to Platonic Form Diaz, and there is no more fun closer in the game. Sound the trumpets!
Interesting road trip coming up. My only thought for this week (disclaimer that my new Mauricio jersey has arrived) is for Ronny to keep raking, and have Stearns execute the inevitable plan to bring him up and take Young’s AB’s and likely Acuna’s. Ronny is my guy, my favorite prospect since the aforementioned Reyes. And I cannot wait to see him back up for the Nationals series starting 6/10. That’s my guess.
OK, have a great day fellow Mets fans and scribes, I’m off to Citi to try and catch a brooming to start June! LFGM!
A terrific analysis, and as for Brett let's hope so!