How should the Mets proceed with Christian Scott the rest of the way?

Christian Scott allowed another difference-making homer in a sluggish loss to the Marlins

Associated Press

What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️

• The Mets lost 4-2 to the Marlins in Miami on Sunday afternoon (box)

• Christian Scott started for the Mets and allowed a back-breaking three-run home run to Jazz Chisholm in the fourth inning

• Adrian Houser relieved Scott and allowed a home run to Jake Burger in an otherwise strong 2.2 IP of relief, and Jake Diekman gave the Mets 1.1 IP of scoreless relief

• The Mets scattered eight singles on the afternoon and went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position - they settled only for RBI from JD Martínez and Luis Torrens

• The Mets are 2-for-22 with runners in scoring position in this series against Miami, and are 4-5 this season overall against the Marlins

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Playoff Race 🏁

The Mets are in a three-way tie for the third wild card with the Diamondbacks and Padres, and are 1.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They have 64 games to play.

Per FanGraphs, the Mets now have a 37% chance of making the postseason in 2024 after their win in Miami yesterday.

New York has the 12th easiest schedule in MLB the rest of the way.

Tiebreakers:

• vs. ATL: 3-3

• vs. ARI: 2-2

• vs. STL: 3-2

• vs. SD: 3-0

• vs. CIN: 2-1

• vs. SF: 2-4 (finished)

• vs. PIT: 5-2 (finished)

• vs. CHC: 4-3 (finished)

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Roster Moves 📰

• Acquired RHP TJ Shook from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Tyler Jay

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Injury Updates 🏥

• RHP Kodai Senga (capsule strain in right shoulder) is expected to be activated from the injured list for a start against the Braves on Friday

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Down on the Farm 🌾

• SS Boston Baro (Low-A STL): 4-for-5, 2 2B, RBI, R

• OF Omar De Los Santos (High-A BRK): 2-for-3, HR, RBI, 3 R

• OF Stanley Consuegra (Double-A BNG): 1-for-3, HR, 2 RBI

• RHP Dominic Hamel (Triple-A SYR): 4.2 IP, 2 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K

BOX SCORES

Single-A STL | High-A BRK | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR

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Today’s Game 🗓

Match-up: Mets (50-48) at Marlins (35-64)

Where: loanDepot Park — Miami, FL

Starters: LHP David Peterson (4-0, 3.09 ERA) vs. RHP Yonny Chirinos (0-1, 5.76 ERA)

When: 6:40 PM EDT

Where to Watch: SNY

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What to make of Christian Scott right now… ✍️

Getty Images

When Kodai Senga returns from the injured list later this week, the Mets fully plan to employ a six-man rotation.

Why?

Well, for starters, they need to ease Senga in. Shoulder problems are dicey and mysterious, and they simply cannot overburden Senga with a heavy workload out of the gate. Such a schedule plays into Senga’s strength as a starter - he posted a 3.04 ERA in 17 starts with five days rest last season, a 2.45 ERA in nine games with more rest. He comes from a system in Japan where he would pitch on a similar schedule. So, between that and the need to coddle that shoulder, this plays perfectly for Senga.

They’re also nursing an innings problem with Luis Severino. He is up to 115.2 IP this season, the most he’s thrown since 2018, his age-24 season when he threw 191.1 IP for the Yankees that year. In between, he has dealt with a variety of shoulder and elbow issues, so the Mets have to be judicious with Severino as well.

That brings me to Christian Scott who is dealing with a similar dilemma to both Senga and Severino, but is also dealing with an effectiveness issue.

Scott has thrown 47.1 IP in the big leagues so far in 2024, 42.1 IP at Triple-A Syracuse. That’s 89.2 IP in total, which is two more innings than he threw last year in total for the season. The Mets figure to allow him to throw around 130 IP in 2024 before having to shut his season down (that’s an educated guess, for what it’s worth).

Scott is a very exciting talent in the Mets pitching pipeline, there’s no question about it. When we first saw him back in spring training, he featured a tantalizing sweeper/slider combination to go along with a big swing-and-miss fastball and the occasional splitter.

While those breaking pitches are clearly effective at Triple-A (he recorded 55 strikeouts in 42.1 IP for Syracuse), it hasn’t quite been there for him in the big leagues, at least not since he was recalled on July 3.

In those four starts since returning from the minor leagues, Scott has allowed five home runs over only 19.2 IP. The problem to me has clearly been his sweeper, which simply lacks the break we saw in that one start in Spring Training, and the opposition is soaking that pitch up to the tune of a .516 slugging percentage against. His slider hasn’t been much better - the opposition has produced a .485 slugging percentage against that pitch as well.

Because those pitches haven’t been effective, it’s over-exposing his fastball.

It’s not as if they’re ambushing Scott. Not by a long shot. But the more ineffective breaking balls he throws - and he’s throwing way too many of them end-to-end in his starts - the more likely it is he is going to get tagged, which is exactly why he’s allowed so many home runs as of late.

The question is, should Scott remain in the rotation, even in a six-man scenario?

The kid is still learning, and I think we can all see the upside with Scott even in the midst of these struggles. But should he be learning on the job in the middle of a pennant race? Historically, that answer has always been no.

The problem for the Mets is if they choose to go with a six-man rotation, there really isn’t anyone else to consider at Triple-A aside from Tylor Megill, who wasn’t pitching well before he got demoted. They designated Joey Lucchesi for assignment but were able to retain him with an outright assignment to Syracuse, but he also isn’t a legit option for their rotation and would require a move on the 40-man roster as well.

So, the Mets might be left with having to remain patient with Scott, teaching him on the job and managing his innings limit all in one shot.

Of course, patience can come at a cost, as was the case on Sunday when he allowed a back-breaking three-run home run to Jazz Chisholm in the fourth inning.

Now, Chisholm’s homer was not the only reason the Mets lost on Sunday.

They didn’t hit a lick, stranded a small army on the bases and just looked lethargic at the plate for the third straight game in this series.

They’ve scored seven runs in the first three games in this series and are 2-for-22 with runners in scoring position.

That’s just not going to play, and their performance at the plate is the overarching reason why the Mets have lost two of the first three games of this series, and can only hope for a split of a series they really needed to win.

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Around the League 🚩

• The Cardinals hit three home runs to help guide them to a 6-2 win over the Braves

• Aaron Judge hit is 35th home run, but the Yankees still fell to the Rays 6-4 in the Bronx

• The Mariners pulled back to within a game of first place in the AL West with their 6-4 win over the Astros

• Tyler Phillips threw six shutout innings as the Phillies rolled over the Pirates 6-0