How much time do Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga have left in Queens?

Plus, the Mets lost again, setting up a rubber game against the Phillies on Sunday

What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️

• The Mets delivered a characteristically middling performance against a rival on Saturday, scoring one run on three hits in a 6-1 loss (box)

• Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga both struggled on the mound: Manaea gave up four runs on two homers in 4.2 innings, while Senga allowed another pair to cross the plate in just over an inning of work

• LF Tyrone Taylor provided most of the Mets’ offense with a two-hit day, including solo homer in the top of the second inning, his seventh of the season and fourth since returning from the IL

• CF A.J. Ewing stole his 10th base of the season; he and Benge lead the team with 26 between them, more than the rest of the roster combined (23)

• Mets hitters struck out 11 times yesterday, working just two walks

• They weren’t much better in the field, adding another three errors to their already-egregious season tally (69, second-worst in MLB)

• The Mets pushed back on Adam Ottavino’s recent claims that they were the “main culprit” behind MLB’s recent AI crackdown (The Guardian)

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Roster Moves 📰

• RHP Rafi Vazquez acquired from Atlantic League’s Southern Maryland Blue Crabs

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Injury Updates 🏥

• RHP Clay Holmes (fractured right fibula) had his rehab start postponed due to weather, but threw a 45-pitch live BP session instead; he’ll make a rehab start in five days, setting him up for potential activation by the end of July (MLB.com)

• CF Luis Robert Jr. (Lumbar spine inflammation) went 2-for-5 with a homer, two two runs scored, two RBI and two strikeouts in his latest rehab outing for Triple-A Syracuse on Saturday

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Play of the Game 🤷‍♂️

The tone was set early, in very predictable fashion.

After allowing a lead-off single to Trea Turner, Sean Manaea served Kyle Schwarber a middle-middle 85 mph meatball of a cutter. Schwarber promptly hammered it 400 feet down the right field line into the upper deck.

It was Schwarber’s sixth homer against the Mets this season.

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The Just Mets Podcast 🎙️

ICYMI: Trade season is upon us, and in the latest Patreon episode, Rich and Michael took on the hottest takes the Just Mets faithful had to offer. Enjoy a preview above, and subscribe to our Patreon to hear the full conversation!

SUBSCRIBE: YouTube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify

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Down on the Farm 🌾

• DH MJ Melendez (Triple-A): 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, BB

• CF Luis Robert Jr. (Triple-A, rehab): 2-for-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 K

• 1B Christopher Morel (Triple-A): 2-for-4, HR, 2B, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB, K

• 1B Nick Lorusso (Double-A): 2-for-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 K

• DH Trey Snyder (Single-A): 2-for-3, 2 2B, BB, K

BOX SCORES

Single-A SLU | High-A BRK (PPD) | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR

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Today’s Game 🗓

Match-up: Mets (41-58) at Phillies (55-44)

Where: Citizens Bank Park - Philadelphia, PA

Starters: RHP Nolan McLean (6-6, 3.52 ERA) vs. RHP Alan Rangel (0-2, 4.19 ERA)

When: 1:35 PM EDT

Where to Watch: SNY

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What value do either Sean Manaea or Kodai Senga have left? ✍️

Chris Szagola-AP Photo

Trade season is in full swing, and following a particularly lackluster piggyback performance, it’s fair for fans to loudly speculate whether Sean Manaea or Kodai Senga can provide any substantive value at the trade deadline.

To say both pitchers have underperformed this season would be more of an outright lie than it would be an understatement, but they don’t belong in the same tier of underperformance. If anything, an argument can be made that these two pitchers currently exist on opposite ends of the value spectrum.

I’m going to try to make that argument right now:

Sean Manaea

Imagn Images

Manaea’s 4.74 ERA over 79.2 innings this season isn’t anything to write home about; nor is his 1.34 WHIP. He isn’t walking many hitters (7.3%, 60th percentile), but he isn’t striking many out either (22.5%, 50th percentile). And there’s really only so much happening under the hood that can be cherry-picked in pursuit of a good spin: it’s certainly noteworthy that his fastball is yielding a +6 run value while averaging just over 90 mph — good location wins! — and it’s exciting that he’s generating his highest chase rate since his rookie season.

However, he’s also allowing the most out-of-zone contact he ever has, alongside the second-highest general contact rate of his career, while stranding just 66% of baserunners and keeping less than 40% of batted balls on the ground. That’s a non-negligible number of red flags without wading all that deep into the weeds.

And yet, Manaea may still be pitching himself into a tradeable position, if for no other reason than teams valuing veteran lefties with playoff experience.

Sean Manaea’s called strikes (L) and swinging strikes (R) on his fastball in 2026.

Take a look at the chart above: Manaea’s fastball is working in two different spots, in two different ways. The fact that he’s getting so many called strikes in that specific part of the zone, while getting his swings so far upstairs, suggests that he’s both locating and sequencing it particularly well this year. The numbers support that theory: his heater currently has a 104 Location+ score. Given the concerns around that pitch at the outset of the season, it’s funny to see it become arguably his most effective offering this year. A fastball that can be deployed throughout the zone with desired results is a weapon any pitching coach will jump on if given the opportunity, especially if there’s any extant need for innings.

And even though Manaea’s outing yesterday was far from his best effort, his season resume isn’t too far off from his pre-established baselines; by all accounts, he’s having a pretty Sean Manaea™ year. In fact, Manaea’s stat line over his entire Mets tenure is nearly 1:1 with his career per-162 averages. He’s shown some undeniable signs of decline (be it due to age, change in role, whatever the case may be), but that sort of stability can go a long way for a staff, both on and off the field — especially in the postseason. (Mets fans know that all too well.)

Could the recently revived Red Sox, who just parted ways with lefty Danny Coulombe, be a potential partner? The Twins and Mariners could make interesting partners as well, given how tight the AL Wild Card race has become. With Manaea’s increased innings workload, experience in relief, and unique arm angle from the left side, he offers enough ingredients for a pitching department to try and pull together something palatable.

The Mets would undoubtedly have to pay down a significant portion of what’s owed to Manaea if they could move him, especially to a mid to small market team, but his value to a contender probably isn’t good no matter what.

Verdict: Minimal trade Value

Kodai Senga

Thearon W. Henderson-Getty Images

While Manaea has at least offered occasional silver linings to latch onto, Senga has demonstrated time and again that he is no longer a Major League-caliber pitcher. Not as a starter, and not as a reliever.

Senga lasted only an inning and a third on Saturday, needing 45 pitches to get through his brief but costly outing. Though Manaea had already done most of the day’s damage, Senga still allowed two runs on three hits and three walks. He now owns a 0-7 record with an 8.85 ERA, a 14% walk rate, roughly one homer per appearance, a 6.89 FIP, and a 1.84 WHIP on the season.

The walks are biting Senga in several areas, as he’s averaging nearly 20 pitches per inning on a sub-60% strike rate. Combined with his elevated homer rate, teams must by now be operating with the knowledge that they’re highly likely to get multiple runs on the board when he steps onto the mound. Though he didn’t get bitten by the longball last night, Senga’s been all but guaranteed to give up a homer when he’s taken the hill this season. His dozen homers allowed in as many appearances are already tied with his 2025 total…in about 70 fewer innings. His season high is 17, which he allowed over 166 rookie innings.

This is a really concerning trend, because it affirms the story his pitch charts have been telling for a while now: he is extremely hittable in the zone, and that’s why he avoids it so much.

But despite living on the outer extremes of the zone to avoid getting feasted on over the plate, Senga still gets hit around an unsustainable amount on the corners. Hitters managing a .339 wOBA in a zone that sees 22% of your pitch count is bad enough; when a hefty chunk of that pitch distribution lies in chase/waste territory, that implies literally anything you throw is swing-worthy.

In short, Senga offers:

• A plus-grade fastball that’s sometimes on and only occasionally well-located

• A devastating breaking pitch that’s really his only consistent out pitch

• Average-to-below average shapes and stuff on the rest of his arsenal

• A near-9.00 ERA, near-2.00 WHIP, and near-7.00 FIP

All told, it’s hard to see Senga fielding all that much trade interest, if any. Even a team who’s truly desperate for pitching help would likely be better off dipping into their own farm reserves than they would be risking any additional disruption for a pitcher who’s proven themselves so easily rattled. There’s always the possibility a team bets on his potential, but there’s likely more to be fixed here than a simple change of scenery and situation can remedy. Maybe Senga would accept another demotion, but it’s similarly hard to see the good in further mechanical tinkering against lower-level talent when it hasn’t offered much help to this point.

Verdict: Cut ties at all costs

The 2026 trade deadline is Monday, August 3rd at 6:00 pm. Mark your calendars.

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Around the League 🚩

• The Reds signed RHP Chase Burns to a 7-year, $105 million extension

• The Orioles signed RHP Kyle Bradish to a 5-year, $90 million extension (MLB.com)

• The Cubs acquired veteran righty Aaron Civale from the A’s in exchange for minor league pitcher Aiden Moffett (MLB.com)

• The Red Sox cut struggling lefty reliever Danny Coulombe, who posted a 4.50 ERA with a 6.34 SIERA over 22 innings; the southpaw has struck out just 10.4% of batters faced this season

• Red Sox RF Wilyer Abreu had his second-straight two-homer game, becoming the first player with consecutive multi-homer games since Mookie Betts in 2016. They have won 12 games in a row and are firmly in the playoff picture

• LHP Tarik Skubal issued a vintage performance, striking out nine over seven scoreless innings in a 7-0 Tigers win

• The Nationals and Athletics are in the midst of a wild series, with the A’s taking yesterday’s game 15-1 after losing 23-4 the day prior