How is the Mets starting rotation shaking out to start the year?
Here's a look at how the Mets appear to be aligning their starting rotation with Opening Day nine days away
The original post had inaccurate information regarding Griffin Canning. It has been corrected.
What’s up with the Mets? 🌴
The Mets won their game against the Marlins 6-5 in Jupiter (Box) but lost their game against the Rays 2-0 in Port St. Lucie (Box | Highlights)
Griffin Canning started for the Mets against the Rays and was dominant, allowing just a run with nine strikeouts over 4.2 IP
Francisco Lindor notched two of the Mets three hits against the Rays
In Jupiter, Paul Blackburn struck out six while allowing two runs over four innings
Alexander Canario homered and drove in two runs
Justin Hagenman allowed two earned runs over four innings of relief
Mets prospect Ryan Clifford (#4) was named to the All-Spring Breakout team (release)
Roster Moves 🗞️
The following players were re-assigned to minor league camp on Monday, paring the roster down to 44 players:
C Chris Williams
INF Luis De Los Santos
1B Joey Meneses
LHP Anthony Gose
RHP Sean Reid-Foley
Injury Updates 🏥
Jesse Winker left the game on Monday against the Rays with a cramp in his calf. He is not expected to miss any time
José Buttó (groin injury) returned to Grapefruit League play on Monday and threw a scoreless inning of relief
Brandon Nimmo (sore knee) started in left field for the Mets against the Rays in Port St. Lucie - he played five innings before being removed with no issue
Dedniel Núñez (elbow strain) made his Grapefruit League debut against the Rays and threw one scoreless inning
Stories from Port St. Lucie… 📰
Darryl Strawberry is a fan of what the Mets are building (NY Daily News)
Edwin Díaz isn’t worried about his velocity (Newsday)
Today’s Game 🗓️
The Mets are off today. They resume their Grapefruit League schedule tomorrow against the Astros in West Palm Beach at 6:05 PM.
A calculated estimate of the Mets starting pitching plan to open the season… ✍️
Well, we are less than a week from camp breaking. A week from today, the Mets will be in Houston or on their way anyway to get set to embark on their 162-game journey towards what is hopefully baseball’s promised land in New York, which is up the Canyon of Heroes to celebrate a championship.
Yeah, I know I am dreaming a bit there. Especially with the Mets set to start their season with their roster on the fractured side. And as I write this, we still don’t really know how the rotation is going to shake out, at least over the first couple of weeks of the season until they (hopefully) get Sean Manaea back.
Here’s what we do know right now:
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said on Monday that they are considering carrying all three of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, and Paul Blackburn on the opening day roster, with one of them going to the bullpen to start the year.
We also know Clay Holmes is starting on Opening Day next Thursday, and it sure seems like they’re pushing Kodai Senga out to the fifth spot in the rotation in an effort to maximize his preparation time before they truly need him.
Mendoza has also talked about pushing David Peterson out to their second series of the season against the Marlins in Miami because of the right-handed-heavy situation with the Astros, which makes sense.
Now, how the Mets fill out the rest of the rotation out of the gate is up in the air. But that would mean Holmes and two of Canning, Megill, and Blackburn will start in Houston in the first three games of the season.
A lot will come down to how things shake out with these three arms over the next week. Canning was dominant on Monday in Port St. Lucie against the Rays, striking out nine batters over 4.2 IP. He hasn’t allowed much of anything all spring, and kind of felt like a lock to make the rotation out of camp no matter what - his performance is only helping his campaign.
Blackburn was decent over four innings in Jupiter against the Marlins after a promising start last week against the Cardinals. Megill didn’t pitch particularly well on Sunday but has had an otherwise strong spring, and the Mets have been impressed with his growth over the course of camp.
The Mets can look at all three one more time in some combination next Saturday, Sunday, and Monday in Grapefruit League play. Something tells me Megill and Canning have a leg up on all of this right now, with Blackburn probably looking at a long relief role to start the season.
I also bet Manaea’s timeline is in play in terms of how they set up the rest of their rotation as well, but it would stand to reason the Mets are going to go with five starters until mid-April, given the scheduled off-days.
The Mets don’t need a sixth starter until April 19 against the Cardinals, assuming they go with five starters out of the gate (which, I assume they will given how much they’re coddling their pitchers this spring). If Manaea is ready to return that day, then the Mets can simply option Canning or Megill to Triple-A and keep either stretched out there, and slot Manaea into the rotation seamlessly. Blackburn can’t be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing waivers.
It only makes sense roster-wise to keep two of the three in the big leagues when Manaea gets back and if nobody else gets hurt. Unless the Mets are willing to let Blackburn go in a waiver claim (which, given the current state of starting pitching around the game and in their own house, they probably aren’t), then sending Megill or Canning down is the only logical alternative in that scenario.
Plus, Megill and Canning needs to be in a rotation somewhere, not pitching in relief. They’re going to need them all year long in this shuttle role.
And, if Manaea isn’t ready on April 19, the Mets can slot Blackburn in as the sixth starter and do bullpen games until he is stretched out, if needed. Then, when Manaea comes back in that scenario, they can figure out what to do with whoever they deem is the odd man out at that time.
Of course, this all assumes nobody else gets hurt between now and Opening Day, or now and whenever Manaea returns. And as we all know, that’s hardly a slam dunk.
Around the League 🚩
Spencer Strider made his spring debut for the Braves on Monday after not pitching competitively for nearly a year due to UCL surgery - he struck out six batters over 2.2 IP
The Braves and C James McCann came to terms on a minor league contract (FanSided)
Padres RHP Yu Darvish has paused his preparation for the season due what is being termed as general fatigue - he might not be available to start the season (MLB.com)
This makes sense to me as the most likely course. Blackburn being out of options is the wrinkle Stearns needs to work around, and this would do it. Not great for Canning or Megill if they have to go down, maybe. But it would be temporary.
I have my doubts about Blackburn working out of the 'pen long term, though. His stuff plays as a starter weaving his way through a lineup. I think he's the guy most likely to be left without a chair when the music stops.
Give a rotation slot to Megill! He's got the best arm out of the three. Interesting to note Mets have not picked up an external catching retread...Braves signed McCann...I like giving a chance to Reetz or Senger.