How do the Mets proceed with their pending free agents? (Part 2)
Today, we discuss JD Martínez, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jesse Winker
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets signed RHP Chris Devenski to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training (MLB.com)
The Dodgers are expected to bid on OF Juan Soto this winter (New York Post)
After the World Series, the Mets could have as many as 13 of their currently rostered players file for free agency.
Yesterday, I discussed Pete Alonso’s free agency and what a potential contract might look like for him.
Today, I will examine four more pending free agents for the Mets. Tomorrow and Thursday, I’ll discuss the final eight free agents…
JD Martínez
Mets designated hitters produced a .731 OPS in 2024, Martínez produced a .725 OPS, whereas the league average was .742. So, the math is pretty clear. He was a nominally below average designated hitter for the Mets, thanks mostly to his .165/.257/.309 line after August 5 (not including the playoffs).
The Mets signed Martínez late in spring training, and he didn’t join the club until late April. He was originally meant to serve as an upgrade to Mark Vientos, who was optioned to Triple-A when the Mets in March when Martínez arrived.
It’s just a tad ironic how all of that shook out in the end.
Anyway, Martínez was as good as advertised from mid-May until mid-July, a two month stretch which helped propel the Mets back into contention this past season, producing an .824 OPS in 49 games between May 15 and July 14. But then cracks began to appear and Martínez badly struggled down the stretch of the 2024 season, to a point where he found himself in a platoon or not playing at all at times.
Having said that, Martínez provided intangible value with his experience and mentorship inside the Mets clubhouse. Many players credited Martínez for the role he played and his veteran leadership, and that was a big reason why the Mets got as far as they did in 2024.
But does that mean the Mets should bring him back?
There is also a question as to whether or not Martínez wants to even play going forward. He wasn’t particularly forthcoming on that topic at the conclusion of the NLCS.
As we seem to have said every year since the DH was implemented in the National League, the Mets need to find more production from their designated hitters. They probably need to find a player or players who can serve in this role and be at least minimally competent in the field.
It’s fair to wonder what Martínez has left in what will be his age-37 season in 2025.
As such, it would make sense for the Mets to move on from Martínez and allocate those funds to a more dynamic player. That’s not to knock Martínez - he has had a fabulous career and he left his mark on the Mets culturally and intellectually from a baseball perspective. But unless the Mets are out of options (which at this point, they are not), it’s hard to bet on Martínez returning even if he does decide to play.
There’s no reason to expect the Mets to extend Martínez the $21 million qualifying offer after the World Series.
Martínez signed a one-year, $12 million contract with the Mets in March, However, he agreed to defer $7.5 million of his salary into $1.5 million installments payable annually on January 15 from 2034 to 2038, per Cot’s Contracts.
Sean Manaea
After a career year in 2024, Manaea, who will be 33 on opening day, is expected to opt out of the two-year contract he signed with the Mets before the 2024 season and file for free agency after the World Series.
Manaea has spent the better part of two years reinventing himself after spending a lot of time at Driveline Baseball in 2023, and took a final and major step towards completing his reformation in the second half of this season when he dropped down even further and began to throw across his body, emulating Chris Sale’s delivery with a high degree of success.
The result? A 3.02 ERA in his final 18 starts and his emergence as the staff ace and staff leader.
He admittedly hit a wall stamina-wise in the NLCS, which stands to reason since his combined total of regular season innings and postseason innings pushed him over the 200 IP mark, which is more than any other season for him to-date.
His experience, ability and willingness to transform, evolve and adjust all have value for the Mets, but not as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He stepped up and performed as such, but its unfair to ask someone like Manaea to be a staff ace when that’s just not what he is in a larger sample size.
But, he has warranted a two or a three year extension, the Mets need him and they need a lot starting pitching in 2025, so he seems like an ideal fit at a similar if not slightly higher average annual value to return.
In addition, Manaea is still a swing-and-miss arm, albeit not prolifically, and the Mets pitching staff needs arms that can create strikeouts, as we learned in the NLCS against the Dodgers.
Manaea has said he wants to come back and loves New York too. Mets President of Baseball Operations was very open in the club’s interest in bringing back Manaea as well. So, it makes sense to explore parameters on a reasonable extension for Manaea this winter.
Manaea signed a two-year, $28 million contract with the Mets before the 2024 season with a player opt-out after 2024. He earned $14.5 million in 2024 with a contracted salary of $13.5 million for 2025, if he doesn’t opt-out. Should he opt-out, he will probably receive the $21 million qualifying offer after the World Series, which he would be expected to decline and instead seek a multi-year deal in free agency.
It’s worth mentioning Manaea signed a similar two-year deal with the Giants before the 2023 season, and opted-out after the 2023 season before joining the Mets on a new two-year deal.
Luis Severino
Needless to say, Severino, who will be 31 on opening day, put years of injury woes behind him with a full season of 182 innings over 31 starts and a 3.91 ERA. At times, Severino was dazzling, showing off the stuff that made him one of the most highly touted pitching prospects to come out of the Yankee system in a very long time.
He has earned himself a multi-year deal in free agency, without question.
The question is simple - can he sustain this? Can he remain healthy? The longer-term sample size doesn’t necessarily say yes, but of course nobody can predict the future. There were genuine concerns about his workload in 2024, having not logged 180 innings since 2019, and he blew the top off that number between his regular season innings and his postseason innings.
And at times, it seemed as though he was hitting his wall in 2024, but then he would find that next gear and prove everyone wrong, including potentially his manager and coaching staff.
He is a couple of years younger than Manaea, which could make him more of an attractive option and a lower-risk in a multi-year scenario for the franchise, assuming the Mets are to choose one or the other but not both (which I would expect, especially if they are to go shopping for a big arm either in trade or free agency).
The Mets could choose both, however, especially if they are unable to find a top shelf starting pitcher at an agreeable price point either in free agency or trade.
One of the aspects of Severino’s game that attracted David Stearns to him a year ago was his stuff and talent. He still throws hard and produced generally weak contact in 2024, but his change-up and slider weren’t where they needed to be at times, which often caused him to struggle at times in the middle of his outings and contributed to a lower strikeout total than the Mets needed. However, his sweeper was an effective compliment to his fastball, so if he can continue to improve upon that pitch and refine his change-up, maybe he won’t hit those walls as often as he did in 2024.
There’s also the cultural fit with Severino, which matters and he unquestionably helped cultivate a positive, winning culture with the Mets in 2024. And of course he is another player who has proven to be able to handle the cauldron that is New York City.
I wouldn’t expect the Mets to tag Severino with the $21 million qualifying offer after the season, especially since he might take such a raise from his $13 million base salary in 2024. He did earn a total of $2 million in performance bonuses this season ($500,000 for his 27th start, $750,000 for his 29th start, and $750,000 for his 31st start) raising his total salary to $15 million for the year. He should definitely be able to find a multi-year deal in free agency for similar if not slightly more money per year.
Jesse Winker
There’s probably no easier layup for the Mets to take this winter than with Winker, in my view. He was every bit of what the Mets needed in his role upon arriving at the trade deadline through the playoffs, fit right in culturally, became popular in the room and popular with the fans, and can serve in a variety of roles for the team at a relatively modest cost.
He produced a .788 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, won a game with a home run in August, and showed the energy, character and personality he has long been known for. The Mets also need to endeavor to be a little more left-handed up and down their roster - Winker just seems like an ideal fit all around for this roster spot.
He called it a, “dream come true” to play for the Mets at the end of the NLCS. He has embraced this team, the fans have embraced him. Why not bring him back on a short-term deal? He does a lot of things the Mets are going to need heading into 2025 and he won’t be a major expense for this team with respect to the value he can bring to the roster next season.
Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2 million major league contract with the Nationals in mid-February. He will definitely make more money and will likely seek at least a two-year deal in free agency. He isn’t a $21 million qualifying offer candidate.
Part 3 will come tomorrow, with notes on José Quintana, Harrison Bader, Brooks Raley, and Drew Smith…
I agree I’d like to bring Winker back. Should be a no brainer. JD and Sevy thank you for your service. JD was definitely not great this year but I credit him with helping Vientos a lot. I’d like to resign Manaea too. His age scares me a little so it depends on what the terms are obviously