How do projections view the 2025 Mets?
An inside look at the Mets recruitment of Juan Soto comes out. Plus, a look at Fangraphs projections for this year's squad.
The Mets are off today ahead of their regular season opener tomorrow afternoon in Houston
An inside look at the Mets pursuit of Juan Soto this past offseason, and how they stole the superstar outfielder from the Yankees (Sports Illustrated)
The club will now have a mascot race of their own at Citi Field this year, introducing five New York borough-specific mascots (MLB.com)
Today’s Game 🗓️
The Mets are off Wednesday. They open the 2025 regular season with a three-game series against the Astros beginning tomorrow in Houston at 4:10 PM ET.
Let’s look at some projections for the 2025 Mets… ✍️
Now that Spring Training is finally over and we prepare for Opening Day tomorrow, I thought it could be fun to use this final day before the regular season to look ahead at what some projections think of the Mets ahead of 2025.
Here are some of those most interesting projections, courtesy of Fangraphs…
Juan Soto: 6.5 fWAR
Surprise, surprise – Fangraphs thinks Juan Soto is going to have a big season. In his first year in Queens, the site’s ZiPS projection stat has the stud outfielder posting a 6.5 fWAR, which would be good for the third-highest mark of his major league career.
This would, of course, be a drop-off from Soto’s career-high 8.1 fWAR last season in the Bronx. Soto will be leaving the comforts of Yankee Stadium, and while he’ll be in a far deeper lineup overall, he will no longer have the unique protection that Aaron Judge provides. It should also be worth noting that projections are normally fairly conservative, so the fact that Soto has a projected fWAR as high as he does only reinforces the caliber of player the Mets have on their hands.
ZiPS also projects Soto to hit .277/.426/.521 with 33 home runs, 26 doubles, 100 RBI, 108 runs scored, only 109 strikeouts, and a 166 wRC+ in 152 games played next season.
Clay Holmes: 16 starts (23 appearances)
ZiPS does not appear to be buying into the Clay Holmes hype train as much as others might. While the Fangraphs projection has Holmes pitching to a solid clip next year with a 3.66 ERA and 3.43 FIP, they also have him making just 16 total starts along with seven additional appearances in relief. Overall, they’ve got Holmes pitching in just 110 innings.
I wonder if this could largely be due to the fact that the computers are basing a lot of this off the fact that Holmes simply hasn’t been a starting pitcher for a large portion of his major league career. Since his rookie season in 2018, Holmes has not made a single appearance as a starter in the big leagues, something that the analytics may be overcompensating for here.
Barring injury issues, I do expect Holmes to make a majority of his starts this season and not appear out of the bullpen unless there is some sort of total disaster. Seth Lugo made 26 starts (no relief appearances), Michael King made 30 starts (one relief appearance), and Reynaldo López made 25 starts (one relief appearance) in each of their first seasons after converting from late-inning reliever to starting pitcher. I would use those benchmarks as your guide for Holmes this year.
Mark Vientos: 26 home runs
After his breakout at the plate last season, Fangraphs is expecting largely similar numbers for Mark Vientos… with a slight drop-off. After hitting 27 home runs (and five more in the postseason) last year, ZiPS has Vientos actually hitting one less home run in more plate appearances.
Again, while I realize that these projections are often conservative and there may be concerns of a bit of a sophomore slump for the young third baseman, I do find this one to be a bit curious. If you want to tell me that he’s unlikely to hit quite as well as last season after getting more exposure to the league, I can buy that. But to project that his overall production will go down in terms of both home runs and RBI is a bit odd to me, especially considering the fact that Vientos only played in 111 games last year after getting a late start.
Similar to Holmes, these projections may be overcompensating for the fact that Vientos has never played a full season – usually overproduction issues early in his career rather than injury concerns – as they still only have the slugger appearing in 137 games next year.
New York Mets: 86-76, 62.8% playoff odds
Despite their big offseason where the club signed Juan Soto, Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and A.J. Minter and re-signed Sean Manaea and Pete Alonso, Fangraphs actually has the Mets winning three less games in 2025.
Now before you freak out… they still have them projected to be the fourth-best team in baseball. The only problem is, two of their other best teams in the league are finishing ahead of the Mets in their own division.
Remember what I said about projections being conservative? Well, when it comes to win-loss totals, that goes twofold. Just to show you how watered-down record projections normally are, Fangraphs only has two teams in the entire league – the Dodgers (97) and Braves (93) – winning over 90 games this season. Obviously, that isn’t going to be the case barring the biggest season of parity we’ve ever seen at the major league level, so take that all with a grain of salt.
Overall, this one is probably the toughest of all to evaluate. I think the Mets are going to win more than 86 games – and with the offseason they had, they better. And I also think that they have a better than 14.6 percent chance to win the NL East. But the beauty is that this game is not played on computers, nor is it decided by them even if analytics have (rightfully) played such a prominent role in this sport in recent years.
Ultimately, this will be something decided on the field, and I can’t wait to watch every second of it.
Around the League 🚩
The Mariners and C Cal Raleigh are close to finalizing a six-year, $105 million contract extension through the 2030 season (MLB.com)
Astros 3B Cam Smith, who they acquired as part of their trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, has made Houston’s Opening Day roster despite playing just 32 career games in the minor leagues
Dbacks LHP Jordan Montgomery will undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his season and likely his Arizona career
The Angels officially released former No. 1 overall draft pick Mickey Moniak
It's "play ball" tomorrow. Finally. #LGM 🍎
I think you meant to say “parity,” not “parody.”