Mets interested in Alex Bregman, Luis Castillo, and finding that starting pitcher

The Mets top priority remains shoring up their rotation heading into the 2025 season

What’s up with the Mets? 🍎

• The Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers and Astros are showing “continued” interest in 3B Alex Bregman (KPRC2 Houston)

• The Mets have inquired about a trade for Mariners RHP Luis Castillo (Athletic)

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How might Alex Bregman work for the Mets? ✍️

I suppose it’s time for a conversation about this rumor, since it won’t go away.

The Mets reportedly have been among those expressing interest in signing 3B Alex Bregman, who became a free agent after spending the first nine years of his career with the Astros. He has won two World Championships, albeit one controversially, is a two-time All-Star, a Silver Slugger winner, and won his first Gold Glove at third base in 2024.

But this is more complicated than it might seem.

Bregman, who is entering his age-31 season and is represented by Scott Boras, has the fourth-highest bWAR at 39.6 among third basemen to have played at least 700 games at the position since 2016, behind only Manny Machado (40.7), Nolan Arenado (44.3), and José Ramirez (49.6). His 132 OPS+ is second, his 694 runs scored are fourth, his 1132 and 191 hits are sixth, his 663 RBI are fifth, his .366 OBP is third, and his .483 SLG is fifth.

Defensively, his 22 outs above average (OAA) are eighth-best, his 27 defensive runs saved (DRS) are fifth best among all qualified players since 2016.

He also has 99 postseason games under his belt with 19 home runs and 54 RBI over 434 plate appearances, and has played in at least 145 games in all but one (2021) 162-game seasons in his career.

We are talking about as good of an all-around position player as there is available on the free agent market.

Here’s the rub.

The only way I can see Bregman even being a possibility for the Mets is if Pete Alonso goes elsewhere. I don’t see the Mets firmly positioning themselves in Bregman’s market until there’s certainty with Alonso finding a new home, and it remains to be seen if that’s going to happen. They could perhaps truly go for Bregman if they know for sure Alonso isn’t coming back and it’s before he signs, but until that happens, going down this road wouldn’t be the most popular decision, to say the least.

Now, let’s say Alonso does go elsewhere.

To be fair, Bregman has been a better overall player than Alonso since 2019, as prolific as Alonso’s been since he came up. He’s a better defender at a more valuable position than Alonso, they’ve produced similar wRC+ since 2019 (Bregman 133, Alonso 131), Alonso’s OPS is marginally better (.854 to .839), but Bregman’s 25.8 fWAR is substantially better than Alonso’s 17.3 fWAR during that span.

Still, Bregman is looking at anywhere between $25 million - $28 million over 6-7 years in free agency, which is a similar deal to what Alonso will probably get (it would be a stretch to think Alonso would get seven years, but you never know with Boras). Bregman is tied to draft compensation as he received and rejected the $21.05 million qualifying offer from the Astros in November.

In this case, the Mets would install Bregman at third base and probably move Mark Vientos to first base. I don’t see the Mets pivoting to Christian Walker if they let Alonso go and ink Bregman, nor do I see the Mets signing both Bregman and Alonso, thereby marginalizing Vientos as their designated hitter. David Stearns has said repeatedly since he took this job that they will not block their internal prospects and players from the big leagues, and signing Bregman and either Alonso or Walker would do that to Vientos for sure.

There’s no question Bregman is an enticing plan B for the Mets should Alonso leave. There are some concerning peripherals on Bregman right now, most notably the .315 OBP he posted in 2024, which was the lowest since 2016. But he also struggled against fastballs in 2024, something which hadn’t been the case in previous seasons. All told, though, the team that signs Bregman is getting a solid glove at worst at third, coupled with a quality offensive player who doesn’t strike out a lot and doesn’t chase, either.

But again, a lot has to happen from my seat in order for the Mets to seriously consider this route, including surrendering another draft pick after losing two for Juan Soto.

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Trade candidates, and 5 starting pitchers connected to the Mets so far this winter… ✍️

The Mets are still in need and are in the market for additional top-of-the-depth-chart starting pitching. It’s safe to say this is their top priority for the moment, given how fast this has started to move in the last week or so, and it’s looking like the Mets are interested in adding at least one starter, as David Stearns said the club will be employing a six-man rotation for most of the 2025 season.

There’s also a ton of question marks and uncertainty around who they currently have, including the two arms they signed this winter in Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas, not to mention a fair level of uncertainty between Kodai Senga and David Peterson, despite the upside potential with them.

Stearns acknowledged the Mets were interested in acquiring Garrett Crochet in a trade before the White Sox dealt him to the Red Sox at the end of the winter meetings. The good news about that is it signals a new willingness by the club to entertain trades involving prospects for major leaguers, something they were pretty clear about being unwilling to do a year ago. But it’s also clear outside organizations don’t necessarily view the top of the Mets farm system the way they do others, and the ask - which was reportedly both Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams - was an area of their farm system where they don’t have a lot of surplus (starting pitching specifically).

It’s also hard to envision the Mets serving up top-shelf prospects for rental pitchers such as Framber Valdez, who I would expect is now available after the Astros made a partial prospect deal with the Cubs in trading away Kyle Tucker.

It’s possible they could move some big-league talent to Seattle for Luis Castillo, which is what they’re reportedly looking for in return. But aside from expensive and fractional options such as Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil, they don’t really have any extraneous parts to meet Seattle’s ask. They could sweeten a deal with prospects in theory, but they could have some competition with teams such as the Red Sox, who have a top-level farm system and can still trade from a surplus of top prospect depth without batting an eye, even after their deal to get Crochet.

Castillo, by the way, has a full no-trade clause applicable through the 2025 season, so he has control of where he wants to go if the Mariners really want to move him. But his $22.75 million salary through 2027 feels like a steal for a pitcher like him given the conditions in the market.

Even so, it also might not make a lot of sense for the Mets to consider trading for Castillo (yet, anyway) when there are comparable free agents still available who can be had for money only. There’s also some concern out there with Castillo about possible diminishment, which could partially be the reason— aside from having a surplus of starting pitching— why Seattle might be willing to move him.

Aside from those trade candidates, here is a look at a few free agent pitchers, all of whom have been connected to the club over the last week or so…

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Nick Pivetta

Pivetta’s name came up during the winter meetings, with the Mets reportedly expressing interest in the veteran right-hander.

Pivetta, who will be 32 on opening day, put together two consecutive fairly consistent years in Boston by his standards, posting the lowest ERAs of his career as both a starter and reliever but mainly served as a starter in 2024 with a 4.14 ERA over 145.2 IP in 27 games, 26 starts.

The drawing card on Pivetta is that he misses bats. He had 183 strikeouts in 142.2 IP in 2023, 172 in 145.2 IP in 2024. He’s always generally been a high strikeout arm, and he posted the lowest walk rate of his career in 2024 at 2.2 per nine.

Pivetta has a good fastball, but the rest of his stuff is fairly pedestrian, which explains why when he’s in the zone, he often gets pummeled.

I know Pivetta is out on the market as a starter, but his stuff might play better out of the bullpen where he can be a two-pitch pitcher. He’s also tied to draft compensation, which for me should take him out of the equation for the Mets given what he would bring to the table.

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Rōki Sasaki

For the Mets, Sasaki is an obvious fit and meets the criteria for the kind of pitcher they should be committing to long-term. He’s just 23 years old and has had a stunningly good career to this point in Japan.

David Stearns said the Mets will be putting together a presentation and giving this their best shot.

Aside from the typical injury risk that comes with hard-throwing pitchers, teams are better able now to determine if a pitcher from an international baseball league can be successful or not in the majors thanks to their ability to analyze spin rates and biomechanics. As such, the general consensus on Sasaki is that his stuff would be elite in the major leagues.

However, there are some challenges for the Mets if they want to sign Sasaki.

First off, they have to stave off the Dodgers and the Padres, who, according to the New York Post, are among the favorites to sign Sasaki. Second, I’m guessing the Mets would have to trade for more international pool money, as they have already committed $5 million of their $6.2 million allotment in the 2025 signing period to 16-year-old SS Elian Peña (Athletic). It’s not a market where clubs can just freely spend - they are all subject to limitations set by MLB.

The good news for the Mets is, most every club has already committed to one or more international free agents for the 2025 signing period. So, the playing field is generally level there. The bad news is, because Sasaki would only require international bonus money and a minor league deal, his market could be and should be as big as all 30 clubs. Even the White Sox are reportedly interested.

Of course, Sasaki might not entertain pitches from all clubs, and it remains to be seen if he even wants a sit-down with the Mets for that matter.

Sasaki’s camp is intrigued by Jeremy Hefner and the Mets’ overall ability to develop and reinvent pitching, but his agent, Joel Wolfe, said this week Sasaki might be more interested in a smaller market since he had trouble with the Japanese media last year.

Also - since the new signing period doesn’t start until January 15, it’s unlikely Sasaki will sign before then, which is the strategically correct move for him since that’s the day all of the pools reset.

Because of all of this, the Mets have to proceed as though they will be unable to sign Sasaki and stay the course in the American free agent pool. If they can sign Sasaki, awesome. But again, they can’t bank on signing Sasaki, which probably won’t happen for more than a month, as I said before.

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Walker Buehler

Buehler fits the profile for what the Mets are always looking for in the starting pitching market, which is a very talented arm in need of a modernization project.

Buehler, 30, missed the entire 2023 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and struggled in his first year back for the Dodgers in 2024, posting a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts with 64 strikeouts and 28 walks in 75 innings. The first full season back following the surgery can always be a trial for a pitcher - between missing so much time and feeling good and strong on a consistent basis, it often takes a full year after the return for a pitcher to return to form.

But Buehler isn’t in his 20s anymore, so it can be more difficult, especially since this is Buehler’s second Tommy John surgery.

He did perform very well against the Mets and Yankees in the postseason after a rough go against the Padres in the NLDS. He threw 10 scoreless innings against both New York clubs with 13 strikeouts against four walks, a sign that Buehler might have turned a corner in his recovery process.

Still, his overall numbers are what they are. But his history and playoff experience shouldn’t be ignored, especially if he can be had on a prove-it deal.

Buehler was one of the best pitchers in baseball during a four-year span between 2018-2021, posting a 2.82 ERA with just 137 walks allowed and 620 strikeouts and only 58 home runs allowed over 95 appearances, 94 starts, and 564 innings. But he blew the elbow out in 2022, missed all of 2023, and here we are looking at what’s probably going to need to be a modestly reinvented version of Buehler as he heads into the next phase of his career.

If the Mets can get him on a two- or three-year deal with an opt-out, even at a higher-than-desired AAV, it feels like a no-brainer for the Mets to sign him and get him into Jeremy Hefner’s kitchen to straighten him out. He has an ace-like history, his cutter is still elite, and again, his history and general skill level should be very enticing for the Mets.

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Jack Flaherty

There hasn’t been a lot of buzz about Flaherty so far this winter. The Mets have reportedly shown some interest, there’s some noise out there that the Tigers might be interested in a reunion, the Cubs might be interested in a budget deal for him, but that’s about it so far.

Flaherty has had an up and down career but put together a fine walk year between the Tigers and Dodgers in 2024, posting a 3.17 ERA over 28 starts with 194 strikeouts and just 38 walks over 162 innings. He was not very good in the postseason, however, allowing 18 runs over 22 innings against the Padres, Mets, and Yankees.

He’s entering his age-30 season with a 3.63 lifetime ERA with the Cardinals, Tigers, Dodgers, and Orioles in his eight-year career. After a promising start to his career in 2018, he lost his way a bit between 2020-2023 as he dealt with a shoulder injury during those years, but he’s clearly past those issues now as he was one of the best pitchers in the league in 2024.

His fastball/curve combination is deadly, as his curve was one of the best in the game in 2024 with a run value of 12. His fastball will sit in the low 90s, so he’s not going to be a high-velocity arm, but that curveball makes him the swing-and-miss arm that he is and therefore, the kind of pitcher the Mets need.

The good news is, Flaherty was traded mid-year in 2024 from the Tigers to the Dodgers, so he couldn’t receive a qualifying offer. But given where the market is for starting pitching, a fair contract for Flaherty could be in the 5-7 year range, which I’d expect is well beyond the Mets’ comfort zone.

I do wonder though if Flaherty would prefer to be in California. He is from the Los Angeles area and the trade to the Dodgers last summer was a homecoming for him and his family. I don’t know where he might fit with any of those teams, of course.

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Sean Manaea

Manaea has spent the better part of two years reinventing himself after spending a lot of time at Driveline Baseball in 2023, and took a final and major step towards completing his reformation in the second half of this past season when he dropped down even further and began to throw across his body, emulating Chris Sale’s delivery with a high degree of success.

The result? A 3.02 ERA in his final 18 starts and his emergence as the staff ace and staff leader.

In addition, Manaea is still a swing-and-miss arm, albeit not prolifically, and the Mets pitching staff needs arms that can create strikeouts, as we learned in the NLCS against the Dodgers.

He admittedly hit a wall stamina-wise in the NLCS, which stands to reason since his combined total of regular season innings and postseason innings pushed him over the 200 IP mark, which is more than any other season for him to date.

His experience, ability, and willingness to transform, evolve, and adjust all have value for the Mets, but not as a top-of-the-rotation starter in the medium or long-term. He stepped up and performed as such, but it’s unfair to ask someone like Manaea to be a staff ace when that’s just not what he is in a larger sample size.

Out of the gate this winter, I said he had warranted a two- or a three-year extension. But, with the way the market for free agent starting pitching has evolved, Manaea could be in for a four- or even five-year deal in the area of $25 million per year. If that’s the case, it’s hard to see Manaea coming back as the Mets have shown no appetite for signing starting pitchers to even a medium-term deal.

Still, the Mets and Manaea remain mutually interested in a reunion, and he was a big piece of that winning culture in 2024. But he deserves fair market value, and that value is obviously very inflated right now.