Dodgers crush Mets in crucial Game 3, 8-0
The Mets have been shutout two times in three games in the NLCS
What’s Up with the Mets? 🚩
The Mets got blown away by the Dodgers 8-0 in Game 3 of the NLCS (box)
Luis Severino started for the Mets and he was decent, allowing two runs into the fifth inning before leaving for Reed Garrett - Severino walked four, struck out three and allowed two runs (none earned) in 4.2 IP.
The Mets bullpen did not pitch well - Reed Garrett allowed a back-breaking two-run home run to Kike Hernandez in the sixth, and Tylor Megill poured fuel on the fire when he allowed a three-run home run to Shohei Ohtani
The Mets walked seven more batters and three leadoff batters on the night - they’ve walked 22 batters in three games in the NLCS
The Mets offense was non-existent - they sprinkled four singles and were fanned 13 times on the night by Walker Buehler and the Dodger bullpen, six looking and three looking from Francisco Álvarez
The Mets have been shutout twice in the first three games of the NLCS
Did you know? ⁉️
The 22 walks the Mets have allowed in the first three games of the NLCS is the tied for the third-highest mark in a three-game span in postseason history (2017 NLCS, LA drew 22 walks in games 2-4 against the Cubs, 23 against the Pirates in games 2-4 against the Pirates in the 1974 ALCS, and the Astros drew 24 walks in games 2-4 of the 1980 NLCS against the Phillies)
The Mets have issued 43 walks in the postseason, more than any other team. Most importantly, they’re issuing 4.4 walks per nine innings, the highest mark of any team left in the playoffs with the bullpen walking 5.2 batters per nine innings
The Mets bullpen has a 4.76 ERA, having allowed 23 walks and seven home runs in 39.1 IP
Moment of the Game 🙈
Wednesday night’s loss seemed to contain multiple nadirs for the Mets, but the tone setter in this game came in the second inning after Luis Severino walked the first of three leadoff men on the night for the Mets.
With a 2-2 count, Severino induced a weak ground ball in front of the plate, essentially serving as a sacrifice bunt. But, Francisco Álvarez decided to try and get the lead runner out at second base rather than the sure out at first base. He didn’t get that out thanks to a late and bad throw to second which kicked away from the bag.
Instead of a runner at second and one out, it was first and second and nobody out. Both runners would come around to score and the Dodgers did not look back from there.
GAME FOUR
Match-up: Mets (1-2) vs. Dodgers (2-1)
Where: Citi Field - Flushing, NY
Starters: LHP José Quintana (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-0, 5.63 ERA)
When: 8:08 PM EDT
Where to Watch: FS1
Notes on the Severino, walks, the offense, and Álvarez… ✍️
That was not the showing we expected last night. Everything went bad for the Mets in their return to Citi Field and in their effort to capture the flag in their home field advantage this week.
Their pitching was bad, their defense was bad, their offense was bad. Hence, they lost 8-0.
I could stop right there because that’s all you really need to know about the game. It was forgettable, albeit not tense because the Mets weren’t competitive in the game, and so they find themselves down 2-1 in their best of seven series against the Dodgers.
In the end, the Mets didn’t hit a lick, walked eight batters, allowed three home runs, and played very poorly on defense, specifically in that second inning.
And against a championship-grade team in the Dodgers, there isn’t a margin for error with any one of these problems, and the Mets didn’t do any of that well.
I want to hit on a few specific points from here…
The Severino situation…
This is a delicate one.
The Mets gave Severino extra rest and the opportunity to pitch home thanks to his sub 3.00 ERA at Citi Field this season and the clear need to give him rest after throwing 182 innings in the regular season and then another 12 between the Wild Card Series and Division Series.
That put him at 194 coming into Wednesday’s start against the Dodgers after throwing 209 innings combined from 2019-2023.
He hadn’t pitched in ten days, which again, was probably a good strategy the Mets employed for him. But when sinkerballers get too much rest, they often end up being sloppy up in the strike zone with that pitch, and that was evident right from the start for Severino. There wasn’t enough vertical movement on his pitches, instead getting a lot of horizontal movement. It didn’t hurt him in the first inning but he really struggled with his command of that pitch the rest of the way which partially led to all of the walks he issued.
The funny thing is, they didn’t hit Severino hard at all. It’s safe to say he was effectively wild and if not for three defensive mistakes in the second inning, we might be having a different conversation about this game entirely.
The rust was evident nonetheless, but not for the wrong reasons. The Mets can’t run him into the ground.
All-in-all, I thought Severino was ok, or good enough, or however he needed to be to give the Mets a shot at winning this playoff game. He wasn’t sharp by any means but he made his out pitches when he needed to - he buried himself with two gaffes on his own on comebacks in the second inning which lead to the two unearned runs, but he held the fort into the fifth inning until Carlos Mendoza got him out of there.
Whether that was the right move at the time or not, we will never know. Reed Garrett did get Teoscar Hernandez to end the fifth, but left him out there for the sixth who gave up a two-out, two-run home run to October Legend Kike Hernandez to really put this game away on the Mets before Tylor Megill let all of the cats out of the bag in his outing.
The walks!
I want to try not to be Captain Obvious here, but this is going nowhere for the Mets if they don’t stop walking batters at the rate they’re on.
They’ve walked 22 batters in 27 innings in this series. This isn’t on any one pitcher - it’s on all of them from Kodai Senga in Game 1 right down the chute to Tylor Megill last night.
Winning in the playoffs starts with starting pitching. We all know that. Outside of Senga, the starting pitching has been fine on the surface but between Senga, Sean Manaea and now Luis Severino, the starting pitchers in this series have walked 12 of the 22.
It obviously played a partial role in Senga coming out of the game in Game 1, it shortened Manaea’s otherwise strong start in Game 2, and it limited Severino’s effectiveness and outing in Game 3, leaving way too much for the bullpen to support, which they haven’t done well end-to-end in the playoffs to begin with.
The Mets have walked 4.4 batters per nine innings in the postseason. All three of the teams who have a higher rate (Phillies, Royals, Astros) went home early and the one right behind them (Guardians) are in a lot of trouble in their ALCS against the Yankees.
It just doesn’t play here. It doesn’t play anywhere in baseball. Walks are a killer and they are unquestionably killing the Mets this week against the Dodgers.
The offense…
The offense has been non-existent in two of the the first three games in this series.
Literally.
The Dodgers have shut the Mets out twice in the first three games.
Yes, the Dodgers have pitched well. I don’t want to diminish Walker Buehler’s much needed rebound last night. His breaking stuff was filthy, looking like the pre-Tommy John Buehler in what was a must-have game for LA last night. He did his job, and their bullpen was back to looking championship-caliber after a rough one at Dodger Stadium on Monday.
But the Mets are really struggling with their approach end-to-end in this postseason. They’re not making in-game adjustments the way they need to, they’re not attacking the top shelf pitchers early and often the way any team would have to.
They’re routinely in 0-1, 0-2 counts and taking hittable pitches early in those counts. By then, the chance of getting on-base is painfully low. When that gets compounded with one bad plate appearance after the next, well, there are your two shutouts in three games.
When the Mets offense is clicking, they’re attacking early and often and scoring first, evident by their 58-27 record when scoring first in a game this season. We saw that quality approach in Game 2, but it was absent in Games 1 and 3.
Now, the Mets weren’t shutout in Game 3 without having plenty of opportunities to score. They did have nine baserunners on the night. But three were left in scoring position with two out and they left a total of eight runners on-base, going 0-for-4 in total with runners in scoring position.
Now, it might not have mattered considering how poorly the Mets pitched. But in the end, it doesn’t matter how many runs they give up if they don’t even score one. Their offense was non-competitive on Wednesday. They looked completely baffled from start to finish, that’s all there is to it.
What’s up with Francisco Álvarez?
He made that costly error. He struck out three times looking in Game 3.
He is struggling to hit, he is struggling to field his position, we already knew he was struggling to receive and block balls.
I’ll give him a pass on his struggles to throw out baserunners, because that hasn’t really factored into this series and he did throw out Shohei Ohtani in Game 1.
But all-told, Álvarez isn’t a big league player right now. He appears to be utterly lost at the plate, either swinging wildly at pitches outside the zone or taking hittable fastballs inside the zone, and his defense isn’t cutting it.
Mets Manager Carlos Mendoza said after Game 3, knowing full well the question was coming, that Álvarez will be behind the plate for Game 4.
The problem is, we are seeing a player who, to me anyway, is lacking confidence in between the lines. He’s a young player, and that baseball immaturity has reared its ugly head in the postseason. But this is an extension of a longer-term struggle for Álvarez who, outside of a small burst at the end of the regular season, was problematic throughout the second half of the season.
I know it’s never really kosher to bench a player for obvious poor play, and the Mets certainly don’t want to make a big problem with Álvarez even worse and shatter their once promising top prospect.
But this isn’t spring training. This isn’t a time where the Mets should be riding out a longer term projection and stay patient through poor play.
They’re in a tough spot with Álvarez. And sticking with him might lead to the club’s undoing, if it hasn’t already. But maybe he will have a shining moment in Game 4.
He needs one, badly.
The importance of Game 3
For those who don’t know, here’s the stat, courtesy of MLB:
Since the LCS moved to its current seven-game format in 1985, the winner of the third game of the NLCS has advanced to the Fall Classic 24 times (53.2%). Per Elias, in best-of-seven series, teams that go up 2-1, go on to win the series 70.2% of the time (106-45). In the LCS (AL or NL), a team up 2-1 in a seven-game series wins the series 73.3% of the time (44-16).
This is a damaging loss for the Mets, whether it’s 8-0 or 8-7. They now must win three of the final four games in order to get to the World Series. It’s possible, but if they’re going to do it, they’re going to do it in Los Angeles this weekend and that makes today and tomorrow absolute must-wins for the Mets.
The odds are stacked against them, again. They got punched in the gut, again. They’re down on the mat, again.
But this is the part that Carlos Mendoza is good at. He knows how to get his club off that mat and get the train back on the rails. We have seen it time and time again all year long and in the playoffs at that.
This is perhaps their greatest challenge yet in 2024.
But no matter what, I know this club isn’t going down without a fight.
Let’s see what they have in the tank at Citi Field tonight.
The Championship Chase 🏆
The Yankees and Guardians resume the ALCS in Cleveland later this afternoon, with Cleveland trailing 2-0 in the best-of-seven series
Sorry, but starting Alvarez in G4 is basically throwing in the towel, imo. You have a perfectly good sub in Torrens sitting with arguably better defense if nothing else - and nothing else is what we'll get out of Alvy at this point.
Look, we've gotten this far with this cast and I've been wrong all season about their chances, but we all know their limitations and those limitations have a nasty habit of being exposed in the postseason. It really looks like LA-NYY when you add everything up.
So it's magic time or not now. We will absolutely need to win two at Citi to have any chance at all - can't go back to LA down 2-3, just can't. LGM!
As you said pitchers giving too many walks, inconsistent hitting and leaving too many men on base. Next two games are critical. Don't want to see Senga, start Peterson he deserves a shot to start Alvarez needs to sit, he has become an automatic out