Can the Mets win with this version of Edwin Díaz?

New York blows a game they were an out away from winning. Plus, can the club win with a lesser version of their closer?

Rich MacLeod

May 14, 2024

What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️

The Mets lost a heartbreaker on Monday night, falling to the Phillies, 5-4, in 10 innings (box)
RHP Edwin Díaz blew his second save of the season, allowing two runs including a game-tying hit-by-pitch on an 0-2 count with two outs in the 9th
The game-tying hit-by-pitch came one batter after a controversial check-swing non-call that allowed the bases to be loaded
DH J.D. Martínez had his best game as a Met, going 3-for-3 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk and a run scored
LHP Sean Manaea pitched well, allowing just one run on four hits and a walk with six strikeouts over six innings
1B Pete Alonso continued his hot streak, going 2-for-3 with a double, a walk and two runs scored
New York has now played five extra innings this season, and has gone scoreless in the 10th inning in four of those games
RHP Adrian Houser will return to the Mets rotation on Wednesday in Philadelphia, per manager Carlos Mendoza

Injury Updates 🏥

RHP Kodai Senga (shoulder capsule injury) is aiming to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday – if all goes well, he could resume live game action sooner-than-later
RHP Drew Smith (right shoulder soreness) could return from the injured list as soon as this afternoon

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Who’s Hot 🔥

Following his worst start of the season, Sean Manaea has a 2.36 ERA with 19 strikeouts over his last five starts (26.2 innings pitched)
Pete Alonso is now 8-for-his-last-19 (.421) with a home run, four doubles, six RBI and four runs scored over his last five games
J.D. Martínez is 7-for-his-last-19 (.368) with a home run, two doubles and four RBI over his last five games

Down on the Farm 🌾

All four Mets minor league affiliates were off on Monday.

Today’s Game 🗓

Match-up: Mets (19-21) vs. Phillies (29-13)

Where: Citi Field — Flushing, NY

Starters: RHP José Buttó (1-2, 3.00 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (4-2, 3.67 ERA)

When: 1:10 PM EDT

Where to Watch: SNY, MLB Network

Edwin Díaz isn’t the same, and that is a problem ✍️

It’s certainly not what you want.

Despite there being major controversy over how it all transpired – featuring an egregious check-swing call missed to load the bases with two outs in the 9th inning prior to a game-tying hit-by-pitch — one thing is clear eight weeks into this Mets season.

Edwin Díaz is not the same pitcher.

New York was three outs from winning their second consecutive game on Monday night, until Díaz had one of his worst outings in several seasons. Pitching with a 4-2 lead, Díaz allowed two runs on two hits, a home run, two walks and a hit batter. It was the first time that the Mets closer blew a lead of two or more runs in the 9th inning since the 2021 season vs the Pirates.

A lot of the metrics right now would suggest that Díaz may be pitching into some bad luck, as his 1.53 expected ERA and .142 expected batting average rank in the 99th percentile on Baseball Savant. Even so, what has been most alarming for Díaz hasn’t even necessarily been the results, which have been up-and-down, but rather how his fastball has looked.

Ever since the season began, something just hasn’t looked right with Díaz’s four-seamer. At first you chalked it up to the right-hander having missed the entirety of the 2023 season but we’re now 16 appearances into the season and there doesn’t appear to be much of an uptick in that category.

In 2022, the last season Díaz pitched in the major leagues, the Mets closer averaged 99.1 miles per hour on his fastball, a pitch that he threw 41.9 percent of the time. So far this season, Díaz is throwing the pitch at almost the exact same rate (40.8 percent) and yet is averaging just 96.8 miles per hour. That is a 2.3 mile per hour dropoff on the average of Díaz’s fastball velocity, which is a massive drop-off especially considering that the right-hander is still only 30 years old.

It was fair to expect him to be rusty coming off of missing an entire year, but I have a hard time believing that anyone anticipated this serious of a drop in velocity coming off of an injury that was not related to his arm, elbow or shoulder.

Díaz has also not shown the capability of pitching on back-to-back days yet, something that is normal to ask of a team’s closer. On the day of back-to-back outings this season, Díaz has a 7.20 ERA in five games. In all of his other appearances, he has a 1.54 ERA.

While there have been times this season where Díaz has still cracked the radar gun to 98 and 99 miles per hour, there have been an equal amount of times where he has looked hesitant to throw his fastball in certain appearances and has struggled to throw it for quality strikes. As was the case on Monday night vs Philadelphia, many of his fastballs were either out of the zone, or center-cut in the heart of the plate.

It’s also worth noting that Díaz has now allowed four home runs in 16 appearances this season, which is already one more than he allowed in the entirety of his 2022 season over 61 appearances.

If this is what the Mets are going to have to grow to expect from Díaz throughout the remainder of the 2024 season, it certainly does change the way you look at this bullpen and team overall. While their relievers have performed significantly above expectations, this bullpen sure looks a lot more volatile when the 9th inning is no longer the guaranteed lock that you were hoping it would be. And it begs the question: if Díaz is human, how much does that affect this team’s ability to win games this season?

It was already going to be a struggle for these Mets to compete in 2024 with question marks abound in their lineup, their starting rotation and in certain spots of their bullpen. This has already proven that its likely going to be one of those up-and-down kind of years with plenty of peaks and valleys, too, because of these uncertainties, so when you add in a less reliable Díaz, it certainly does change the calculus of things.

Thus far, the numbers are still respectable for Díaz – he’s pitching to a 3.24 ERA with six saves (two blown), 25 strikeouts and six walks over 16 appearances – so it this has not remotely approached 2019 levels of concern for the closer, but it is certainly worth watching moving forward.

Around the League 🚩

Blue Jays LF Daulton Varsho hit a home run at the plate and robbed a home run in the field in Toronto’s 3-2 comeback win vs the Orioles
Dodgers SS Mookie Betts hit the 50th leadoff home run of his career
Giants CF Jung Hoo Lee was placed on the 10-day injured list with a dislocated left shoulder
Braves RHP Reynaldo López lowered with ERA to 1.34 in seven starts this season as Atlanta defeated the Cubs, 2-0