Bidding for Juan Soto has reached $600 million, decision expected soon
Plus, the Mets have their eyes on another reclamation project as their starting pitching strategy become clarified
What’s Up with the Mets? 🍎
Bidding for Juan Soto has reached $600 million and a minimum of 12 years - he has started eliminating teams from the equation although the Mets are still considered favorites (Athletic) - Dec. 3
Soto could make a decision on his new home this week (SNY)
The Mets have expressed interest in Mike Soroka, who could come in and compete for a starting pitching job in camp (Athletic)
Rumor Mill 💨
The Yankees are interested in bringing RHP Tommy Kahnle back, again (New York Post)
The Cardinals are very likely to trade 3B Nolan Arenado this winter (Athletic)
Rays closer RHP Pete Fairbanks and LHP Jeffrey Springs have been discussed in trade discussions (MLB Network)
The strategy the Mets appear to be employing with their starting rotation… ✍️
While we wait for clarity on this Juan Soto derby, the situation with the Mets starting pitching has come into a little more focus, now that they’ve signed RHP Frankie Montas to a two-year contract.
At first glance, two years and $34 million for Montas definitely seems like an overpay, and certainly feels like an overpay. Outside of a short burst in his career, Montas has been a middling, albeit very talented starting pitcher shrouded by arm problems in recent years. He was fully healthy in 2024, but his command was not where it needed to be and it amounted to a 4.84 ERA in the regular season.
But, the $17 million might not be an overpay when you consider a few things which are transpiring in the market.
First off, starting pitching is expensive, and teams are paying more per inning for starting pitchers than they ever have, especially with starting pitchers averaging fewer and fewer innings per start as time goes on.
Second, just look at what the Angels gave LHP Yusei Kikuchi, who, outside of a strong second half in 2024, has been a middling starting pitcher himself over the course of his major league career. He got $63 million over three years, which will unquestionably justify the reasons why neither Luis Severino nor Sean Manaea took the qualifying offer from the Mets. Manaea will most certainly be in the $23-25 million per season range and get that three- to four-year contract he now deserves. Severino might be in a similar ballpark, especially since he’s younger than Manaea and Kikuchi.
The Mets may yet bring back one of Manaea or Severino, but it’s hard to see them signing both, and I don’t see the Mets really getting into any sort of competition for their services. They like them - David Stearns has made that clear - and those players have said they want to return. But the Mets won’t go crazy on the years for either, if I had to wager.
Their rotation doesn’t consist of much right now - they have Montas, Kodai Senga, and David Peterson with Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn (who, by the way, is recovering from spinal leak surgery and may not be ready by opening day) serving as fifth starter options. Top pitching prospect Brandon Sproat is not too far away from the big leagues, but he probably isn’t a realistic candidate to crack the opening day roster.
Having said that, Stearns said in early November that the Mets are in the market for multiple starting pitchers, so they’re most definitely not close to done either at the top of the depth chart or with the bottom of their depth.
They could work to build depth for that fifth starter spot with someone like Mike Soroka, who the Mets have reportedly expressed interest in, and other arms looking to compete for major league jobs on minor league deals.
So, they could reserve the other spots in their rotation for other reclamation projects with high ceilings, or pitchers willing to take high salary but short-term deals.
That might not be exciting or encouraging to read, but there are a few reasons why.
First off, Stearns has made it clear that they have no intention of blocking their top prospects from the big leagues, so at the very least that should indicate that the Mets probably don’t have an appetite for a long-term deal for a pitcher simply based on that strategy.
Second, there’s been a lot of speculation about Stearns wanting to avoid long-term deals for starting pitchers.
Why?
Well, think about it - how many long-term deals for pitchers over the age of 30 have worked out in free agency for the Mets, or any team for that matter?
I can think of three - Max Scherzer’s deal with the Nationals, Zack Wheeler’s deal with the Phillies, and Clayton Kershaw’s deal with the Dodgers. Sure, maybe there are a few others, but not many. The rest of the long-term deals for starting pitchers have typically become albatrosses over their lifespan.
With the Mets, look no further than Johan Santana, who gave the Mets one, maybe two really good and healthy seasons out of the six years on his contract.
And, while it was sad to see him go, aren’t you glad the Mets aren’t saddled with Jacob deGrom’s contract, from which he has given the Rangers the sum total of 40.2 IP over two years and taken $70 million in salary from them?
The Mets look like brainiacs for letting him walk.
This is why the Mets are playing roulette with these reclamation projects, or looking to sign pitchers to shorter-term, higher-salary deals.
If you go back three winters, you’ll recall the Mets signed Scherzer to a three-year, $130 million contract with an opt-out after year two, making him the highest-paid player ever at the time. They did something similar with Justin Verlander a year later after deGrom walked, signing him to a two-year, $86.6 million contract with a conditional third-year option, tying him for the highest salary ever with Scherzer.
In the end, both deals worked out decently for the Mets on the field, as expensive as they were. Scherzer pitched well and helped them get to the playoffs in 2022 (despite some health issues and his late season and October stumble), and both Scherzer and Verlander were healthy enough and good enough in 2023 for them to flip to their new teams for three quality prospects they desperately needed in what was widely considered a barren farm system.
(we will see how those prospects work out over time, of course)
But those short contracts— as expensive as they might have been dollar-wise—are what enabled them to do that in the first place, even if they had to absorb a significant amount of money in the process. They’d still be with the Mets if those contracts were longer, and both would’ve grossly underperformed their salaries to a point they probably wouldn’t have made it to the playoffs in 2024.
So again, those deals worked out just fine for them, even if it didn’t look the way you might’ve thought they would have in the end.
This is precisely why the Mets want to avoid the albatross of long-term contracts to pitchers. Doing so mitigates financial risks and also the risk of their roster being locked down with older, underperforming players for a long period of time.
That’s where someone like Walker Buehler could be interesting, who they’ve also reportedly expressed interest in, as well as Clay Holmes, although I’d first look in Buehler’s class of free agency where there are still a lot of free agent options who are actually starting pitchers. Holmes would need to be converted to a starting pitcher with no insurance policy behind him if that experiment fails.
The question, of course, is, when might their luck run out with their noncommittal strategy?
Can they successfully take on a reclamation project such as Montas and make him a big part of their championship aspirations in 2024? If they sign Buehler, can he reinvent himself and resemble the pitcher who had a 2.82 ERA between 2018-2021, before he needed a second Tommy John surgery after the 2022 season?
The Mets have resurrected the baseball lives of Severino, Manaea, Peterson, and Taijuan Walker, just to name a few. So there’s every reason to believe their processes can help Montas, Buehler, Soroka, or whoever else they decide to employ.
Then again, it may not. These are human beings, after all.
But one thing is for sure - the Mets are clearly aiming away from the Blake Snell’s, Jack Flaherty’s and Corbin Burnes’ of the world, ie any typical free agent ace who is seeking a long-term deal into their mid-to-late 30s.
Rather, they want to develop their own, which is where someone like Sproat, Dominic Hamel, and perhaps down the line, Jonah Tong could play a role. For now, one or two of Manaea, Severino, Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi, or Griffin Canning certainly fit the criteria for what the Mets are trying to do in the short-term (which I define in the two-to-three year range).
And whether you like that or not, that strategy is justified, even with the risk of the reclamation projects they seek in free agency.
Around the League 🚩
The Red Sox have agreed to sign LHP Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $10.75 million deal (MassLive)
The new proposed stadium for the A’s in Las Vegas is $250 million more than originally anticipated (Athletic)
The Royals have reached an agreement with the troubled Diamond Sports Group to air its games on the FanDuel Sports Network (official)
I still think resigning Manaea should be priority #1, but of the guys in that next tier, I think Beuhler and Eovaldi have the most upside. Of course last year I thought they should have signed Lucas Giolito, so maybe I should keep my pitching hot takes to myself.