Assessing the Mets position and strategy ahead the trade deadline

There are some obvious moves the Mets could make as sellers ahead of the August 1 trade deadline, but there are also some creative ways to improve the top of the farm system as well

So, through the season’s first 81 games, the Mets have gone 36-45. That inexplicably puts them on pace to go 72-90 in 2023.

The sad thing is, this doesn’t even seem like this is their floor. They’re playing far worse than a 90 loss team might. It’s almost like they’re a team playing out the string in September, only it’s still actually June with three full months left in the regular season.

So yeah, this could conceivably get worse.

They’re 7-18 in June. They’re hitting .227/.300/.398 as a team during those 25 games, having scored 111 runs or 4.4 runs per game (thanks in large measure to their ability to actually hit home runs, for what it’s worth). The team has pitched to a 4.45 ERA during these last 25 games, 121 total (108 earned, by the way) or 4.8 runs per game.

That run differential actually isn’t terrible considering they’re 11 games under .500 this month alone. But it is not indicative of their quality of play whatsoever. They’ve played sloppy, they’ve played lazy, they haven’t hit when they’ve needed to hit, haven’t pitched well when needed the most, their bullpen has been short and overworked all year, they give up far too many runs in the first inning which causes them to fall behind by a lot and quickly (they have a 6.00 ERA in the first inning), and the quality of their at-bats are generally poor and unproductive in close and late games as well.

All-told, they’re just not good, and no matter what the owner and GM say about hoping and needing this to get better, they are what they are - an un-athletic team which has shown no ability to adapt to the the modern pace of baseball, a team that has underperformed on the mound and at the plate, a team that has no consistent ability to get their starter into the sixth inning or later (it’s happened 26 out of 81 times), and no ability to adjust to any of the things they need to be in order to become a competent baseball team.

Here is their ERA by inning in 2023, runs scored and against with run differentials (brace yourself):

• 1st: 6.00 (22-59, -37)

• 2nd: 5.11 (37-47, -10)

• 3rd: 3.78 (49-39, +10)

• 4th: 3.89 (47-39, +8)

• 5th: 6.11 (55-53, +2)

• 6th: 4.95 (45-44, +1)

• 7th: 3.04 (44-28, +16)

• 8th: 5.06 (19-47, -28)

• 9th: 2.17 (36-13, +23)

• Extra: 7.71 (8-7, +1)

The numbers in the first and second inning are startling (combined -47 run differential), as well as the eighth inning. This says they fall behind early, haven’t been able to competitively respond, and their bullpen is giving up far too many runs ahead of an opportunity to close games out.

Also - they’re 12-15 in one-run games in 2023.

They can argue all they want against this next point too.

The massaging and coddling of this pitching staff simply hasn’t worked for them. Yes, they’re an older team, but pitchers (maybe outside of Kodai Senga) are used to a certain workload and routine, and while its unquestionably important to protect them from injury, they’ve imposed far too many limits on the rotation which has kept them from appearing on a regular cadence. How can they at least not consider that mis-fired strategy as one of the issues which has caused not only their general poor performance, but also an inability to push forward and get deeper into these games? Is there a chart out there that might prove me wrong?

Then there is the bullpen, their weakest link going into the season and that was before they lost Edwin Díaz. Billy Eppler decided to go with “option-able” relievers after the acquisition of David Robertson and Brooks Raley, placing far too much faith in a “everything-must-go-right” bullpen strategy and far too much weight on the shoulders of Robertson, Drew Smith, and Adam Ottavino as a result. This area of the roster is by far the most volatile, yet here were are in a predictable mess which continues to undo the Mets night after night.

This one is on the front office squarely for not adequately addressing competitively and mitigating the large risk in regression and underperformance.

Be all of that as it may, at 36-45 it is now time to look forward. What are the Mets going to do with this roster? How can they parlay it into something usable for 2024? How can they demonstrate to future free agents (like the one who currently resides in Anaheim, CA) that this is a place to call home? How can Steve Cohen make the Mets a destination for the president of baseball operations he is clamoring for?

Well, it might start ahead of the trade deadline, which is now a month away. And perhaps that next step resides not so much in the extreme as it does in the measured, calculated approach to selling.

Rotation

Nobody is going to say now that either Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander are what they were before. Nor should anyone expect them to be despite their unworldly contracts. They’re being paid for what they were in the past, plus their clout and reputations that precede them. That’s free agency, that’s the assumed risk in signing players to multi-year deals.

Now, are they good enough to offer a team value on the mound? Of course they are. Scherzer in particular has righted his ship and proven to be a reliable 5-6 inning pitcher who will occasionally offer more innings. Verlander has pitched very well at home and is clearly capable of rounding himself into consistent form and having a solid year in the end.

But is there any prospect currency available for either that would be worth the Mets eating a significant portion of those contracts, if not all of it?

Certainly not with Verlander, and that’s a hard sell with Scherzer too, especially since he has the $43 million 2024 player option in his hand going forward. And unless Scherzer goes on a Cy Young like tear the rest of the way, why wouldn’t he exercise that option unless he just wants to retire?

Their salaries are in a different stratosphere, the conditions of their contracts make it almost impossible for the Mets to navigate too.

You never know though without an attempt, but unless their is a nutty GM out there, and unless the Mets want to show outsiders they are a rash and hasty organization, I expect both to stay.

As for the rest of the rotation, there’s no reason for them to deal Kodai Senga. He still has another four years left on his deal and has unquestionably provided value against his salary in his rookie season. There’s plenty of upside with him too - they just need to teach him how to be more efficient and get him deeper into games with that dastardly stuff. He is a fine mid-rotation starter at a minimum going forward and is already proving to be a bargain.

Carlos Carrasco might be the most movable piece in theory considering he would be owed about $7 million by the trade deadline and can become a free agent. But he’s a shell of the pitcher he once was on the edge of the end of his career at that. If they can’t find a taker, the Mets could theoretically cut him loose and open up that rotation spot for a younger arm in the minors when the deadline passes.

And forget José Quintana - he hasn’t even thrown a pitch yet this season. He has more to offer them in 2024 than he does via a trade right now.

Bullpen

If the Mets can’t contend in the second half, there’s little reason to have expensive relievers on the roster, and far more of a reason to bring players up from Triple-A to see what they have going forward. That could leave people like Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Adam Ottavino and David Robertson exposed to the trade deadline. All of them have value to contenders, all of them are replaceable this winter with cash, and while it’s unlikely the Mets will net any top prospects for grade-B relievers, restocking the farm system with some quantity from these assets wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world with hopes that 1-2 players in the return blossom into valuable major league players.

Remember, the Mets were able to parlay any value Lucas Duda had into Smith, who has been here since that trade back in 2017, costing them the total of around $3 million in the majors while netting them 1.9 bWAR in the process. That doesn’t seem like much, but all things considered, that’s not a bad long-term return for Duda, who went onto play another 146 games with the Rays and Royals while producing a .693 OPS in the process.

Now, multiply that bWAR by 2.5 at a minimum for the 3-4 relievers they should have available over the next 4-6 years, and that should be the return they can expect.

I also don’t think it makes sense to trade Smith just yet considering he’s under team control and still inexpensive, and that’s the kind of player the Mets need to keep, not jettison. He also hasn’t been great this year, which could result in a fractional return for his services.

But we will see if a market develops for him next month.

Position players

This is where it might be difficult for Billy Eppler to navigate the trade deadline. They’re obviously not moving Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, or Francisco Álvarez.

I did notably leave out Jeff McNeil, though.

I don’t think there’s much of a chance they’d consider moving him, at least not right now. He just signed a five-year deal, has grossly underperformed his salary offensively anyway, and as was the case in 2021 when he struggled, there’s only upside for the Mets to enjoy over the next 4 1/2 years of this deal. But I do think the Mets should be at least listening if someone comes calling between now and next season. That’s not to say there’s value in a trade for them out there, but I don’t think the door should be closed on such a scenario, either. But salary-wise, he could prove to be a bargain for somebody out there (including the Mets) if he can rediscover that swing which has made him a .300 hitter over the course of his career.

Aside from that, they probably don’t have a lot of stock which has much curb appeal for other teams right now. Even in a salary dump situation, Mark Canha is now a part-time player, Starling Marte has been abysmal, so has Daniel Vogelbach and he’s one-dimensional on his best day anyway, their bench is largely made up of Syracuse shuttle players too. Tommy Pham is their most attractive offensive piece, and it seems all but certain the Mets will try to move him this summer.

Perhaps they could find a taker for Omar Narváez. Plus-defenders behind the plate always come in handy for contenders down the stretch and in the playoffs, and certainly have value in trade this time of year. And while Narváez hasn’t played a lot and has had a curiously inconsistent time of it behind the plate, that doesn’t mean a change of scenery wouldn’t help him.

Again, don’t expect a top prospect back for someone like Narváez, but right now anything that might stock the top of the farm system would benefit this organization right now.

The Ronny Mauricio dilemma

I have often wondered what the Mets are really planning with Ronny Mauricio, and that predated Billy Eppler’s arrival to the organization. He has a low ceiling here at his natural position, which means that if he’s going to be a big leaguer with the Mets, it’s going to be elsewhere on the field. He has been playing elsewhere on the field at Triple-A in an effort to make him more versatile (he’s played 39 games at second, 17 in the outfield), and while that might work out for him, often times it doesn’t.

Could they be willing to move Mauricio for another big prospect which could fill a different need for the future? Would they consider packaging him with an available major league asset to net a stronger return too? Are they even thinking about “outside-the-box” moves like this which could benefit the organization both in the short and long term?

Or, maybe they could make the obvious move(s) by shipping Pham and/or Canha out, move McNeil to left field and promote Mauricio to be their second baseman in August and September to see what he’s got. If they do that (which is probably the way it SHOULD play out), he needs to come here, play everyday, bat against lefties and righties and be properly evaluated as either a part of their solution or not in 2024.

Don’t mess with him, you know, like they have done with Baty and Álvarez.

We shall see how they handle and manage this Mauricio situation.

Conclusion

In short, the Mets cannot expect to net a significantly-ranked prospect back in any deal they make, unless they’re willing to move a big prospect of their own (which both Cohen and Eppler said this week they are not willing to do). There’s no big time closer to move, they don’t have a young superstar they’ve been unable to negotiate a new deal for a year and a half away from free agency, either. And those are really the kind of assets that net huge returns at the trade deadline.

But that doesn’t mean the Mets should simply salary-dump their expensive assets, and not act creatively, either. Any move they make should strategize around a max return for the top of their minor league system, even if it means paying out the remainder of their outgoing player contracts. The teams that perform the best at the trade deadline act creatively and artistically in their maneuvering. In cases like this, yes, quantity matters in return as much as the quality as they sorely need player resources at Double-A and Triple-A who can help this team in 2024. But there needs to be some more artistry in the design of this pipeline Mr. Cohen wants to create to the big leagues.

Steve Cohen said himself on Wednesday these are all sunk costs to him at this point. So, if that’s the case (as it should be), paying out the salaries of the players they do decide to move has to be viewed as both the primary asset and value going back to the other club.

So, let’s see how the next month plays out.