Are the Mets the favorites to land a star pitcher?

The Mets are reportedly in on the best available free agent pitcher

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What’s up with the Mets?

• The Mets are the “favorites” to sign LHP Framber Valdez in the area of six years, $200 million (Z101 Digital)

• The Pirates and Mariners could be suitors for Jeff McNeil (NY Post)

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Rumor Mill 🔎

• The Brewers might be having payroll issues, which raises questions as to whether or not they will deal RHP Freddy Peralta (Athletic)

• The Red Sox are considering signing two of Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, JT Realmuto or Kazuma Okamoto, while the Orioles were showing interest in RHP Dylan Cease before he went to Toronto, but are also showing interest in Valdez, Schwarber, and Tatsuya Imai (NY Post)

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How sensible would it be for the Mets to sign Framber Valdez? ✍️

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Happy Thanksgiving! For those who have a long weekend, please enjoy it with friends and family. For those who have to work today, that is most unfortunate, and I am very sorry if that’s the case.

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While most of you were chilling with friends and family on Thursday, there were some rumors buzzing around the Mets, believe it or not. It had me thinking of the Thanksgiving feast between then-GM Omar Minaya and then-free agent Pedro Martínez in 2004, which led to that eventual deal to bring Pedro to the Mets.

It’s not to say anything is imminent. But it’s clear the Mets are at least aggressively pursuing mass change to the roster in an effort to create a championship season in 2026.

The juiciest bit to come out on Thursday was that, according to Héctor Gómez of Z101 Digital, the Mets are the “favorites” to sign LHP Framber Valdez, who is the best free agent starting pitcher available right now.

Valdez will be entering his age 32 season in 2026, so a lengthy contract is very risky. He’s a ground ball pitcher too, which is great, but trouble as currently constructed here. And he is a pitch-to-contact arm as well, which again means the Mets must have a stronger defense behind him, inclusive of the outfield, which is now an area of need thanks to Brandon Nimmo’s departure.

Valdez has been one of the top pitchers in baseball over the last five seasons, pitching to a 3.20 ERA since the start of 2021. He has often been a workhorse for the Astros, hurling over 190 innings in three of his last four seasons and has been a part of a lot of winning in that time span.

Valdez has relied on generating weak contact in his career rather than blowing people away, which is reflected in his 8.77 strikeouts per nine from this past season.

Gómez says Valdez could sign a contract in the area of six years and $200 million, an average annual value of $33.33 million, which exceeds that of Dylan Cease’s new contract with the Blue Jays of seven years and $210 million. That is quite a bit more in average annual value than what most projected before the off-season began, but Cease got more than what most projected so it stands to reason Valdez will benefit from what the market would suggest is arguably an overpay for Cease.

Now, it remains to be seen how this evolves. A deal doesn’t seem to be imminent with Valdez, but obviously these things can change in a heartbeat. The Mets’ path to upgrading the rotation is two-pronged - they always seemed likely to be in on the mid-to-top tier of the starting pitching market, but they also will need to delve into the trade market for another needed upgrade.

So, let’s just say this is legit.

A long-term deal for a 30+ pitcher is exactly the kind of deal David Stearns has endeavored to avoid over the course of his career. That strategy has paid off in many respects for him - look no further than the deal Corbin Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks a year ago, and the Tommy John surgery he needed just a few months after - and it unquestionably burned him in 2025 in the club’s failed construction of their rotation.

Now, I do think that if the Mets were to sign Valdez, they would unquestionably be better in the short term, and now is the time for the Mets especially with the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring in a year and total uncertainty with the fabric of the game beyond that. He has not experienced a dip in fastball velocity over the last year, but the peripheral stats have taken a turn in the wrong direction which isn’t necessarily unexpected as a pitcher ages, but concerning when talking about this kind of contract for a 30+ pitcher:

Framber Valdez - via Baseball Savant (Statcast)

Framber Valdez - via Baseball Savant (Statcast)

On the other hand, while the Mets do indeed have a strong crop of pitching prospects here, having had a cup of coffee or are still in the pipeline, there are way too many IF’s to completely rely upon all of them heading into the 2026 season, especially when it’s clear Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong need more time to develop in the minors and were arguably prematurely called to the big leagues out of sheer desperation at the end of the 2025 season.

In addition, one or more of them may not be in the organization come spring training since they might need them as parts of a trade to upgrade in other areas.

So, the Mets unquestionably will need to take warranted gambles in free agency this winter. And again, with someone like Valdez, it would be hard to believe the Mets wouldn’t be better in years 1-3 of a contract with him. The back end of that deal, based on what we might be seeing now, however, might be a problem.

Now, would the Mets be better off with someone like Michael King?

King is a little younger than Valdez and comes with some risks of his own as he dealt with both knee inflammation and inflammation in his pitching shoulder this past season, and only has eclipsed 100 innings pitched twice in his entire career.

That being said, if the Mets are looking for ceiling here, King showed frontline starter traits in 2024 as he pitched to a 2.95 ERA and 3.33 FIP while making 30 starts. Putting King into a rotation alongside Nolan McLean and someone else via trade could be the best situation for both him and the club as they look to rebuild their staff.

King was really good in his 15 starts in 2025 - he had a 3.44 ERA with 76 strikeouts in 73.1 IP. And, he was a flyball-trend pitcher in 2025, which contrasts his career trend. Given where the Padres are with their ownership situation and reported finances, the odds seem long that he returns to San Diego after opting out of his side of their mutual $15.75 million option for 2026.

In addition, most projections have King in the four-year area and around $20 million per season. And, he knows New York, having pitched for the Yankees before they traded him to the Padres in their Juan Soto deal. Assuming he would come to the Mets, a situation with King might be more attractive for Stearns from a contract perspective than Valdez.

Again, let’s see how this all plays out here. Food for thought during a food-centric weekend.

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Around the League 🚩

• Paul Skenes received $3.4 million from the pre-arbitration pool money thanks to his stellar Cy Young Award winning season in 2025 (ESPN)