Are the Mets close to extending Francisco Álvarez?

The latest Spring Training news. Plus, conflicting reports arise regarding a potential contract extension for a Mets youngster.

What’s up with the Mets? 🍎

• One report on Tuesday suggested that C Francisco Álvarez was close to a contract extension with the club (Gómez), while other reports contradicted that notion (Martino)

• Álvarez himself spoke to reporters on Tuesday and claimed that his agents had not informed him about any news of an extension

• SS Francisco Lindor spoke about his expectations for the 2024 Mets (NY Post)

• RHP Tylor Megill is scheduled to start in the club’s Grapefruit League opener vs the Cardinals on Saturday

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What could a Francisco Álvarez extension look like? ✍️

On Tuesday afternoon in St. Lucie, conflicting reports surfaced around Mets young catcher Francisco Álvarez.

It was first reported by Héctor Gómez that the Mets and Álvarez were close to signing a contract extension. Not long after, however, SNY’s Andy Martino refuted the report, saying that while the move would make sense, he was told that there was “nothing” close on that front.

Álvarez himself later met with the media in camp, and confirmed that nothing appeared to be imminent in regards to an extension.

“My agent hasn’t told me anything, so I am assuming that they haven’t had any types of conversations,” Álvarez said on Tuesday. “They haven’t approached me with any types of conversations. So as of right now, there is nothing.”

While there doesn’t appear to be anything imminent on the horizon, the prospects of a potential Álvarez extension are quite intriguing. The Mets as an organization have very rarely taken care of their homegrown talent early on in their careers, and we’ve seen that continue to manifest in recent years with Brandon Nimmo and soon Pete Alonso hitting open free agency. So, if the Mets were to look into an extension for Álvarez, what might that look like?

To figure that out, it’s helpful to look back at some other young players who signed long-term contracts early on in their careers.

While Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez and Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. both recently signed mega deals as young players, they find themselves in different situations than Álvarez who does not nearly have the MLB experience or original prospect ranking of either player. In 2019, after just 115 games in the major leagues, Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. signed an eight-year, $110 million contract extension. At the time, this was the largest contract in baseball history for a player with less than one year of service time.

Just last month the Tigers signed No. 2 prospect Colt Keith to a six-year, $28.6 million contract with options and escalators that could raise that number up to as much as $82 million. Keith became the 7th player to receiver a contract extension with zero days of MLB service time, with Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio agreeing to a long-term extension in December. Chourio, the No. 2 ranked prospect in all of baseball, agreed to an eight-year contract for $82 million with options for the 2032 and 2033 seasons.

Corbin Carroll, who went on to win National League Rookie of the Year and lead the Dbacks to an unlikely pennant, signed a long-term extension of his own last March after just 32 career games in the big leagues. The Arizona outfielder agreed to an eight-year, $111 million contract last spring.

In terms of catchers, the only young backdrop that has recently signed any sort of extension similar to these has been Keibert Ruíz of the Nationals, agreeing to an eight-year, $50 million contract last spring. The one difference here, however, is that Ruíz was older (24) than a majority of these other players who signed their early extensions.

Álvarez does seem at the prime age for an extension of this kind, as he is the same age (21) as Acuña Jr and Carroll were at the time of their extensions.

While there were some major peaks and valleys, Álvarez showed a lot of promise as an offensive catcher with the club in his first full season last year, belting 25 home runs over 123 games at just 20 years old. Signing the young catcher would be a prudent deal long-term and show the players and fans of this organization that the New York Mets have changed their ways and are invested in rewarding their own talent as opposed to letting them walk out the door.

It’s tough to speculate on the parameters of what a theoretical deal could look like, but based on contracts to players of a similar age and status over the last several years, I think we could be looking at a contract in the range of eight years, $75 million with incentives and options for an additional two seasons. This would buy out five of Álvarez’s six pre-free agency seasons where he would likely be earning a lot less than he’s worth, and give the Mets three additional years of his services through his age 29 season.

While the initial report may have been incorrect, it certainly has opened up a discussion here about the merits of extending Álvarez. It would certainly be a new type of thing for the Mets to do… which is exactly why they should try and make it happen.

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Hot Stove 🔥

• Yankees OF Aaron Judge told reporters that the club may sign another big free agent that is still available

• The Brewers and C Gary Sánchez agreed to restructure his one-year, $7 million contract (The Athletic)

• The Rays officially signed INF Amed Rosario to a one-year, $1.5 million contract