Another historic night for all the wrong reasons
Plus - a deep dive on AJ Ewing's ascent to emerge as a top rookie in the NL
What’s Up with the Mets? ⚾️
The Mets’ wild week continued with a 16-12 loss in nine of the strangest innings you’ll ever see; they are now 200-2 all-time when scoring 12 runs or more (box)
RF Carson Benge got the scoring started early and unconventionally with a Little League homer you’ve got to see to believe (see Play of the Game); he went 2-for-3 with and two walks and a stolen base
CF A.J. Ewing logged a perfect day at the plate, going 4-for-4 with a two-run homer, four runs scored, three RBI, two walks, and a swipe
LF Juan Soto flashed some run-saving leather with a diving play in the top of the fourth inning immediately before smashing his second three-run homer in as many days in the home half of the frame
DH Jorge Polanco was productive in his long-awaited return to the lineup, going 1-for-4 with an RBI double, a walk, and a strikeout
Bo Bichette recorded his 1,000th major league hit on a single in the first that set him up to score
Following a scoreless opening inning from Cionel Pérez, Mets pitching did not show up to play; the Royals hit
Kodai Senga allowed four runs on five hits (including a two-run homer) and five walks in his three innings, and Austin Warren allowed another five runs on four hits without recording an out
Huascar Brazobán provided two scoreless innings to mop up behind Warren…only for recently-acquired MiLB veteran Matt Seelinger to give up seven runs on five hits (including another two-run homer) and four walks in his two-innings MLB debut
LHP A.J. Minter both provided a scoreless ninth inning, the first Met arm to throw a 1-2-3 innings all evening
Royals rookie Tyler Tolbert was a show-stealer, tallying five hits in the midst of an MLB record-tying 12 straight plate appearances with a knock; his streak ended against Minter
And after all that…Jared Young, Brett Baty, and Luis Torrens saw all of five pitches in the bottom of the ninth inning to end the game
Roster Moves 📰
DH Jorge Polanco (left Achilles bursitis) activated from the 60-day IL
INF Ronny Mauricio optioned to Triple-A Syracuse
RHP Matt Seelinger selected from Triple-A Syracuse
RHP Alex Carrillo designated for assignment
RHP Guillo Zuñiga designated for assignment
Injury Updates 🏥
OF Luis Robert Jr. (Lumbar spine inflammation) was scheduled to play in a rehab game with Double-A Binghamton on Tuesday, but was held out and at Citi Field instead - he hopes to play for Binghamton on Wednesday
Play of the Game 🎪
In a game full of weirdness, the tone was set almost immediately.
Three errors, three runs, one play.
The Just Mets Podcast 🎙️
ICYMI: Andrew and Rich got together for their weekly recap to explain what still makes the Mets worth watching.
SUBSCRIBE: YouTube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify
Down on the Farm 🌾
2B Kevin Villavicencio (Double-A): 2-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB
CF Jose Ramos (Double-A): 2-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
1B JT Schwartz (Double-A): 1-for-3, 4 RBI, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K
RHP Noah Hall (High-A): 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 KK
SS Antonio Jimenez (No. 15 prospect, Single-A): 4-for-6, 4 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 SB, 1 K
BOX SCORES
Single-A SLU | High-A BRK | Double-A BNG | Triple-A SYR (PPD)
Today’s Game 🗓
Match-up: Mets (38-54) vs Royals (38-54)
Where: Citi Field — Flushing, NY
Starters: RHP Christian Scott (2-1, 3.49 ERA) vs. RHP Steven Cruz (2-2, 5.08 ERA)
When: 7:10 PM EDT
Where to Watch: SNY
Hit away, A.J. ✍️
On a chaotic night, the youngest Met was the steadiest one of them all. Given the way he’s performed since he debuted, that’s not all that surprising.
A.J. Ewing made his first big league appearance on May 12. Just shy of two months later, he’s hitting .276, leading off and manning center field. Among rookies, he ranks Top 10 in average, on-base, walk rate, stolen bases, and BABIP, and he sits comfortably within the top 15 in wOBA and wRC+; his .400 SLG is still within the top 20. (Unsurprisingly, Carson Benge consistently ranks in the same range in all categories.) Safe to say Ewing’s made his presence known quickly.
Drafted straight out of high school in 2023, Ewing was one of the minors’ fastest-rising prospects last year after he stole 70 bases and hit .315 with an .830 OPS across three levels. His stint in Double-A to open this season was over after 18 games, and his Triple-A stint went by even faster after he was called up following the injury to Luis Robert Jr.
And now, he’s logging four-hit games at the sport’s highest level at just 21 years old.
What’s perhaps more impressive than Ewing’s rapid ascent, though, is how he’s continued that speedy development pace against the toughest competition possible. Look at his numbers from May 12 through June 12, then June 13 through last night’s game.
Ewing May/June: 114 PA, .253/.330/.333, 1 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B, 12 R, 7 RBI, 7 SB (3 CS), 36 K-12 BB (31.6 K%-10.5 BB%), .081 ISO, .381 BABIP, .300 wOBA, 90 wRC+
Ewing June/July: 86 PA, .268/.358/.493, 5 HR, 4 2B, 0 3B, 8 R, 13 RBI, 2 SB (3 CS), 14 K-10 BB (17.3 K%-11.6 BB%), .233 ISO, .283 BABIP, .371 wOBA, 138 wRC+
Some significant trends there:
His homer rate has jumped enormously.
He’s hitting more extra-base hits and producing more runs.
His strikeout rate is way down, way fast.
Though hitting for power has never been a major part of Ewing’s profile as a hitter, he’s always had natural line-drive ability. Now that he’s been able to couple that with a 43% hard-hit rate (despite not having elite bat speed), he’s been hitting the ball at an ideal exit velo-launch angle combination (LA sweet-spot) just over 37% of the time — that’s an 80th percentile rate. Whether the boost in power is the result of mechanical adjustments or elite timing to compensate for a not-so-fast swing, Ewing seems to have started tapping into his nascent power potential, which truly could not be coming at a better time for this lineup.
As far as the reduction in strikeouts, while date-specific swing-rate information isn’t readily available, Ewing is one of the more selective rookies at the plate, swinging less than 44% of the time. If he’s gotten even choosier at the dish, that could partially explain it, but such a drastic drop in frequency, even considering the difference in sample size, feels too large to be explained so simply. It'll be interesting to see whether this trend holds — if he can get his strikeout rate into that 22%-24% range by year's end, we'll be looking at a much more complete hitter. Whether it’s the result of taking fewer swings or hunting specific pitches (he’s hitting .714 on cutters…interesting), all that matters is cutting out those K’s.
Oh, and if all the offensive prowess wasn’t enough, he’s also grading out very well in center field, with a +4 DRS (T-7th among qual. rookies), +2 OAA, and +1 FRV to his name. In nearly every facet of the game, this kid is as steady as it gets.
Now, it’s not all sunshine and roses with Ewing. There are a few things to note as we approach the All-Star break.
While his strikeout rate is way down from where it started, it’s still high overall. His season mark still sits at a cool 25.6%, squarely in the 25th percentile in MLB. The trend here is positive, and it’s not like he swings out of his shoes, but he does strike out at the ninth-highest rate among qualified rookies (min. 180 PA). Granted, he’s up there with Bryce Eldridge and Konnor Griffin, so he’s in good company, but it’ll remain something to keep an eye on until he’s at least league-average.
And while he did steal a base last night, it’s interesting that stolen bases have turned out not to be as valuable a weapon for him as his minor league stats might have indicated. Sure, there’s no guarantee success on the lower levels translates to the majors, but steals were such a core part of his run-scoring recipe that a mere 60% success rate changes his offensive formula fairly significantly. He’s been caught six times already in his first two months — he was caught 11 times all year in 2025. He’s compensating on the power end of the spectrum, for now, but finding a way to reincorporate swipes at the top of the order will do nothing but help this offense.
But still, this is all a bit like complaining about your ice cream being a little too sweet, or your pillow a little too soft. After all, if he maintains this level of productivity, he’s on pace for a nearly-3.5 bWAR inaugural season.
At the end of the day, his nine stolen bases are still second-most on the team, and he ranks top 10 in hits, homers, and RBI. His strikeout rate remains high (seventh-most K’s on the team), but he still manages to get on base and come around to score. No matter what the formula looks like on its surface — whether it’s steal-heavy or homer-happy — he regularly finds ways to get runs on the board.
Sounds like the archetypal leadoff hitter to me. Touché, Andy Green.
Around the League 🚩
Shohei Ohtani hit his 300th MLB homer, but the Dodgers lost to the Rockies 4-3 at home
Ryan O’Hearn mashed three homers and 10 RBIs by the 6th inning, leading the charge in a 12-4 bashing of the Braves in Pittsburgh
Tarik Skubal allowed one run on five hits over five innings while striking out nine to set the tone in a 6-2 win over the A’s
Zack Wheeler returned to vintage form against the Reds, striking out 14 while allowing just one run in seven innings in a 4-1 win
Matthew Boyd hurled six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against the Orioles to help lockdown a 5-2 win
Definitely two positives are the play of Benge and Ewing.
Mets are back to the rotating sub-major league relief arms despite having 13 pitchers on staff. Couldn't hold any leads yesterday. The loss of the first base coach/stealing guru Antawn Richardson also deserves your analysis.