A revised look at the current construction of the Mets rotation

Here's a look at how it's going for Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, and Griffin Canning

What’s up with the Mets? 🌴

• The Mets downed the Marlins 7-3 in Jupiter on Saturday (box)

• David Peterson allowed one hit over four shutout innings

• Danny Young threw a scoreless inning of relief, but José Urena allowed two hits and two unearned runs his inning of work

• Juan Soto went 3-for-3 with a double and an RBI - his OPS for the spring is 1.338

• Joey Meneses - in camp on a spring invite - homered and walked. His spring OPS is now 1.178

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Rumor Mill 💨

• The Mets recently offered RHP Julio Teheran a minor league contract (NY Post)

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Stories from Port St. Lucie… 📝

• Pete Alonso has no regrets despite a difficult off-season and rejecting his contract extension offer in 2023 (NY Post)

• Max Kranick’s stellar camp has put him in a position to win a spot on the pitching staff (Athletic)

• Michael Cuddyer will be on-hand for David Wright’s number retirement in July (Newsday)

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Injury Updates 🏥

• Brandon Nimmo (sore knee) received a gel injection in his knee and will remain shutdown for a few more days

• AJ Minter (recovery from hip surgery) threw his second live batting practice session late last week

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Today’s Game 🗓️

Match-up: Mets (5-8) vs Nationals (8-6)

Where: Clover Park - Port St. Lucie, Florida

Starters: RHP Clay Holmes vs. RHP Jake Irvin

When: 1:10 PM EDT

Where to Watch: WPIX

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How is that starting pitching problem going? ✍️

Aside from the early injuries to the Mets pitching staff, camp has been otherwise quiet and mundane for the Mets over the first month or so (knock on wood). There have been a few pleasant surprises (Max Kranick, Brandon Sproat, Brett Baty), a few of early concerns (Paul Blackburn, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte), but we are getting to the point here that opening day couldn’t come soon enough.

We are just under three weeks until the Mets and Astros ring the bell in Houston. More roster cuts are likely coming this week as the Mets continue to stretch out their starting pitching and have to reserve major league innings for them. Things are starting to take shape with the pitching as we get closer to the starting line.

With the starting pitching the biggest question heading into the season, I figured I’d take a look at how it’s all shaping up at this juncture of spring training for the back of this rotation (which, to be fair, remains thin). The Mets originally needed two of these three pitchers for their six-man rotation plan, but with Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea out to start the year, they might need three, depending on the timing of Manaea’s return (which is looking like late April at best) and when they decide to transition to a six-man rotation…

The locks for this rotation (assuming everyone else stays healthy) are Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, and David Peterson. The rest is somewhat up in the air, at least how it might shake out, although those here on major league contracts and without minor league options will have a leg up in any of this, presumably. Especially since there probably isn’t a true standout at this point in spring training.

By the way, the only way this is a true race is if the Mets decide to wait to transition to a six-man rotation until Sean Manaea returns. It’s going to happen, but the timing of it could depend on the overall performances/how these pitchers look over the next couple of weeks, as well as whether or not any injuries happen during that time as well…

NY Post

Paul Blackburn

Not going great here for Blackburn, who has made three starts so far and has gotten hit pretty hard. He has allowed eight hits, four walks, two home runs, seven runs (six earned), with only one strikeout.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said after Blackburn got roughed up on Friday that it’s not about the results right now for Blackburn. For what it’s worth, that’s what they always say in public when a starting pitcher struggles in spring training. But unfortunately, when a pitcher is in a race to earn a job, it is about the results, and while the Mets can and should afford Blackburn some patience as he recovers from spinal leak surgery, they have to make a decision about whether or not Blackburn is competitive enough right now to be in the major league starting rotation.

But since he’s at least showing that he’s healthy and pitching in major league games during spring training, an assignment to the injured list to start the season might be difficult. The good news is, the Mets can carry Blackburn to start the year and have him throw bullpens/live batting practice without necessarily needing him in the rotation, since the Mets have a couple of off-days before having to use their six-man rotation.

Of course, if Blackburn turns a corner in his next couple of spring starts and eases some of these concerns, the issue becomes moot. Hopefully, that is the case.

Gordon Donovan

Tylor Megill

Megill has made only one spring start so far, and I would say it was pretty Megill-ish. He had good fastball velocity early, and it diminished towards the end of his outing. Not that it became pedestrian, of course - the kid throws really hard. The velocity went from around 98 down to 95-96. He struck out two over 2.2 IP, allowed a run, showed dominance at times, and looked ordinary at others.

In the end, Megill has shown that he can be an effective major league pitcher over shorter spans of innings. And of course, I continue to believe the Mets should eventually transition him into a two-to-three pitch reliever as a result. But for now, he’s a starter who throws a million different pitches - perhaps he would be more effective if that got pared down to four, and he refined those four with more consistency.

Megill does have a minor league option available, so the club does have some flexibility if they want to send him to Triple-A to get innings.

NY Post

Griffin Canning

Like Megill, Canning has made just one start so far this spring. It was fine - he struck out two over 1.2 scoreless innings and allowed two hits.

The Mets probably need to see more of Canning this spring to get a solid idea of what he looks like against competition, but I’d bet he’s in prime position to earn a spot in the rotation. Canning isn’t going to wow anyone with his stuff, and it’s no secret he had a miserable season with the Angels last year, allowing a league-high 99 earned runs in 2024. But the Mets signed him to a one-year, $4.25 million contract in December, and the hope is they can inject him into their pitching lab, fix him up, and make him a competent major league pitcher.

We will see if the Mets can be lucky with another reclamation project here.

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I expect the Mets to open the season with five pitchers in their rotation, which means the Mets could send Megill to the minor leagues to sneak in a start or two there before bringing him into the major league rotation, which would be early-to-mid April depending on how things shake out (April 14 looks to be the first time the Mets would need a sixth starter due to off-days).

A lot of people have asked why the Mets won’t stretch José Buttó out as a starting pitcher. The Mets have been very clear about how they value Buttó, and that is in the multi-inning relief role that made him so successful and valuable to the club during the 2024 season. It’s a, “let's not fix what isn’t broken” thing here with Buttó, and I do agree with that, especially since Buttó has always been someone who struggles to throw strikes. Being in a shorter inning role reduces that exposure point with Buttó and protects what makes him a good and valuable major league pitcher.

For me, I’d love to see what Max Kranick could do in a starting role. He has dominated in relief so far this spring, but he does have professional experience as a starter, and the Mets aren’t short on bullpen arms (for the moment, anyway).

There’s also José Urena, who the Mets picked up on a minor league contract last week and could be a starting pitching option in time. But it doesn’t appear he’s in the running or even being looked at as a starting pitcher at this point in camp.

The Mets could also be waiting to see who becomes available from other clubs in the latter stages of spring training. That’s not to say there’s a big splash coming. Usually, players who become available are the ones getting squeezed out of their respective permutations, have been told they’re not making the team, etc. They could pick up an arm off waivers or make a straight-up cash deal for an extra piece, which would be good considering the state of their starting pitching. But I wouldn’t bet, given the state of their luxury tax situation, it will be a move that takes on significant weight.

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Around the League 🚩

• Braves OF Jurickson Profar jammed his wrist and will undergo imaging (MLB.com)

• José Urquidy is going to the Tigers on a $1 million major league contract (KPRC 2)

• Jacob deGrom threw two perfect innings for the Rangers in his spring debut (MLB.com)

• Gerrit Cole is “concerned” about his elbow - he is receiving multiple opinions to determine next steps (NY Post)

• Mariners RHP George Kirby has shoulder inflammation and is likely headed to the injured list to start the season (ESPN)